| Summary: | Climate change is an immediate and future threat to food security globally. The consequences for fisheries and agriculture production potential are well studied, yet the possible outcomes for aquaculture (i.e., aquatic farming) – the fastest growing food sector on the planet – remains a major gap in scientific understanding. With over a third, and growing, of aquaculture produced in marine waters it is critical to anticipate new opportunities and challenges to marine production under climate change. Here we model and map the effect of warming oceans conditions (RCP 8.5) on marine aquaculture production potential over the next century, based on thermal tolerance and growth data of 180 cultured finfish and bivalve species. We find heterogeneous patterns of gains and losses, but an overall greater probability of declines worldwide. Accounting for multiple drivers of species growth, including shifts in temperature, chlorophyll, and ocean acidification (OA), reveals potentially greater declines in bivalve aquaculture compared to finfish production. This study addresses a missing component in food security research and sustainable development planning by identifying regions that will face potentially greater climate change challenges and resilience for marine aquaculture in the coming decades. Understanding the scale and magnitude of future increases and reductions in aquaculture potential is critical for designing effective and efficient use and protection of the oceans, and ultimately for feeding the planet sustainably.
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