| Summary: | The experiments with the GFDL model used here were performed using the coupled ocean-atmosphere model described in Manabe et al. (1991) and Stouffer et al., (1994) and references therein. The model has interactive clouds and seasonally varying solar insolation. The atmospheric component has nine finite difference (sigma) levels in the vertical. This version of the model was run at a rhomboidal resolution of 15 waves (R15) yielding an equivalent resolution of about 4.5 degrees latitude by 7.5 degrees longitude. The model has global geography consistent with its computational resolution and seasonal (but not diurnal) variation of insolation. The ocean model is based on that of Byan and Lewis (1979) with a spacing between gridpoints of 4.5 degrees latitude and 3.7 degrees longitude. It has 12 unevenly spaced levels in the vertical dimension. To reduce model drift, the fluxes of heat and water are adjusted by amounts which vary seasonally and geographically, but do not change from one year to another. The model also includes a dynamic sea-ice model (Bryan, 1969) which allows the system additional degrees of freedom. The 1000-year unforced simulation used here is described in Manabe and Stouffer (1996). The drift in global-mean temperature during this unforced simulation is very small at about -0.023 degrees C per century. The two GFDL-R15 climate change experiments used here use the IS92a scenario of estimated past and future greenhouse gas (GGa1) and combined greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol (GSa1) forcing for the period 1765-2065 (Haywood et al., 1997). For the GGa1 experiment only the 100-year segment from 1958-2057 are available through the IPCC DDC. The radiative effects of all greenhouse gases is represented in terms of an equivalent CO2 concentration, and the direct radiative sulphate aerosol forcing is parameterised in terms of specified spatially dependent surface albedo changes (following Mitchell et al., 1995). Results from these climate change experiments are discussed in Haywood et al. (1997). The model's climate sensitivity is about 3.7 degrees C. Like B1, the B2 world is one of increased concern for environmental and social sustainability, but the character of this world differs substantially. Education and welfare programs are widely pursued leading to reductions in mortality and, to a lesser extent, fertility. The population reaches about 10 billion people by 2100, consistent with both the United Nations and IIASA median projections. Income per capita grows at an intermediary rate to reach about US$12,000 by 2050. By 2100 the global economy might expand to reach some US$250 trillion. International income differences decrease, although not as rapidly as in scenarios of higher global convergence (A1, B1). Local inequity is reduced considerably through the development of stronger community support networks. Generally high educational levels promote both development and environmental protection. Indeed, environmental protection is one of the few remaining truly international priorities. However, strategies to address global environmental challenges are less successful than in B1, as governments have difficulty designing and implementing agreements that combine environmental protection with mutual economic benefits. The B2 storyline presents a particularly favorable climate for community initiative and social innovation, especially in view of high educational levels. Technological frontiers are pushed less than in A1 and B1 and innovations are also regionally more heterogeneous. Globally, investment in R and D continues its current declining trend, and mechanisms for international diffusion of technology and know-how remain weaker than in scenarios A1 and B1 (but higher than in scenario A2). Some regions with rapid economic development and limited natural resources place particular emphasis on technology development and bilateral co-operation. Technical change is therefore uneven. The energy intensity of GDP declines at about one percent per year, in line with the average historical experience of the last two centuries. Land-use management becomes better integrated at the local level in the B2 world. Urban and transport infrastructure is a particular focus of community innovation, contributing to a low level of car dependence and less urban sprawl. An emphasis on food self-reliance contributes to a shift in dietary patterns towards local products, with reduced meat consumption in countries with high population densities. Energy systems differ from region to region, depending on the availability of natural resources. The need to use energy and other resources more efficiently spurs the development of less carbon-intensive technology in some regions. Environment policy cooperation at the regional level leads to success in the management of some transboundary environmental problems, such as acidification due to SO2, especially to sustain regional self-reliance in agricultural production. Regional cooperation also results in lower emissions of NOx and VOCs, reducing the incidence of elevated tropospheric ozone levels. Although globally the energy system remains predominantly hydrocarbon-based to 2100, there is a gradual transition away from the current share of fossil resources in world energy supply, with a corresponding reduction in carbon intensity.
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