| Summary: | Melt ponds on summer Arctic sea ice control surface albedo, governing energy and mass balance of the ice. The date ponds first form has been connected to interannual variations in ice retreat. Here we evaluate the surface energy balance that governs this critical pond formation date. A three-dimensional sea ice model with resolved melt ponds is used to diagnose pond onset date at a coastal site across years with observed surface fluxes but incomplete pond observations. Results show that the combined sensible and latent heat flux is the best predictor of pond formation date. This finding supports the hypothesis that synoptic weather events transporting warm, moist air into the Arctic are key to initiating pond formation, triggering albedo feedbacks, and, by extension, ice retreat. Changes in timing and frequency of spring warm air incursions may have significant implications on the ice cover and provide predictive power over seasonal ice retreat. This analysis is presented in Skyllingstad and Polashenski (2018) with data contained in this archive.
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