Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties
Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected future changes in total consumer biomas...
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2024
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171580194.49771608/v1 |
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crwinnower:10.22541/essoar.171580194.49771608/v1 2024-09-15T18:35:17+00:00 Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties Murphy, Kieran Arcos, L. Denisse Fierro Rohr, Tyler Weaver Green, David Bruce Novaglio, Camilla Baker, Katherine Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Eddy, Tyler Harrison, Cheryl Shannon Hill, Simeon Keith, Patrick Cataldo-Mendez, Camila Petrik, Colleen M pinkerton, matt Spence, Paul Stollberg, Ilaria Subramaniam, Roshni Trebilco, Rowan Tulloch, Vivitskaia Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Bestley, Sophie Bianchi, Daniele Boyd, Philip W Buchanan, Pearse James Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Coll, Marta Corney, Stuart Paul Datta, Samik Everett, Jason D Forestier, Romain Fulton, Beth Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin Keith Luzinais, Vianney Guibourd de Heneghan, Ryan Mason, Julia G Maury, Olivier McMahon, Clive R. Murphy, Eugene J. Richardson, Anthony Tittensor, Derek Spillias, Scott Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard Veytia, Devi Blanchard, Julia L. 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171580194.49771608/v1 unknown Authorea, Inc. posted-content 2024 crwinnower https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171580194.49771608/v1 2024-09-03T04:27:10Z Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected future changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models (ESMs) used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems. Other/Unknown Material Sea ice Southern Ocean The Winnower |
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Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected future changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models (ESMs) used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems. |
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Other/Unknown Material |
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Murphy, Kieran Arcos, L. Denisse Fierro Rohr, Tyler Weaver Green, David Bruce Novaglio, Camilla Baker, Katherine Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Eddy, Tyler Harrison, Cheryl Shannon Hill, Simeon Keith, Patrick Cataldo-Mendez, Camila Petrik, Colleen M pinkerton, matt Spence, Paul Stollberg, Ilaria Subramaniam, Roshni Trebilco, Rowan Tulloch, Vivitskaia Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Bestley, Sophie Bianchi, Daniele Boyd, Philip W Buchanan, Pearse James Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Coll, Marta Corney, Stuart Paul Datta, Samik Everett, Jason D Forestier, Romain Fulton, Beth Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin Keith Luzinais, Vianney Guibourd de Heneghan, Ryan Mason, Julia G Maury, Olivier McMahon, Clive R. Murphy, Eugene J. Richardson, Anthony Tittensor, Derek Spillias, Scott Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard Veytia, Devi Blanchard, Julia L. |
spellingShingle |
Murphy, Kieran Arcos, L. Denisse Fierro Rohr, Tyler Weaver Green, David Bruce Novaglio, Camilla Baker, Katherine Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Eddy, Tyler Harrison, Cheryl Shannon Hill, Simeon Keith, Patrick Cataldo-Mendez, Camila Petrik, Colleen M pinkerton, matt Spence, Paul Stollberg, Ilaria Subramaniam, Roshni Trebilco, Rowan Tulloch, Vivitskaia Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Bestley, Sophie Bianchi, Daniele Boyd, Philip W Buchanan, Pearse James Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Coll, Marta Corney, Stuart Paul Datta, Samik Everett, Jason D Forestier, Romain Fulton, Beth Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin Keith Luzinais, Vianney Guibourd de Heneghan, Ryan Mason, Julia G Maury, Olivier McMahon, Clive R. Murphy, Eugene J. Richardson, Anthony Tittensor, Derek Spillias, Scott Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard Veytia, Devi Blanchard, Julia L. Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
author_facet |
Murphy, Kieran Arcos, L. Denisse Fierro Rohr, Tyler Weaver Green, David Bruce Novaglio, Camilla Baker, Katherine Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Eddy, Tyler Harrison, Cheryl Shannon Hill, Simeon Keith, Patrick Cataldo-Mendez, Camila Petrik, Colleen M pinkerton, matt Spence, Paul Stollberg, Ilaria Subramaniam, Roshni Trebilco, Rowan Tulloch, Vivitskaia Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Bestley, Sophie Bianchi, Daniele Boyd, Philip W Buchanan, Pearse James Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Coll, Marta Corney, Stuart Paul Datta, Samik Everett, Jason D Forestier, Romain Fulton, Beth Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin Keith Luzinais, Vianney Guibourd de Heneghan, Ryan Mason, Julia G Maury, Olivier McMahon, Clive R. Murphy, Eugene J. Richardson, Anthony Tittensor, Derek Spillias, Scott Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard Veytia, Devi Blanchard, Julia L. |
author_sort |
Murphy, Kieran |
title |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
title_short |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
title_full |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
title_sort |
developing a southern ocean marine ecosystem model ensemble to assess climate risks and uncertainties |
publisher |
Authorea, Inc. |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171580194.49771608/v1 |
genre |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171580194.49771608/v1 |
_version_ |
1810478329997819904 |