Shaking up assumptions: Earthquakes have rarely triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
As the world’s glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable deve...
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2024
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170914534.44756696/v1 |
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crwinnower:10.22541/essoar.170914534.44756696/v1 2024-06-02T08:13:05+00:00 Shaking up assumptions: Earthquakes have rarely triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods Wood, Joanne L Harrison, Stephan Wilson, Ryan Emmer, Adam Kargel, Jeffrey S Cook, Simon J Glasser, Neil F Reynolds, John M Shugar, Dan H Yarleque, Christian 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170914534.44756696/v1 unknown Authorea, Inc. posted-content 2024 crwinnower https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170914534.44756696/v1 2024-05-07T14:19:29Z As the world’s glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long-standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900-2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology. Other/Unknown Material permafrost The Winnower |
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description |
As the world’s glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long-standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900-2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Wood, Joanne L Harrison, Stephan Wilson, Ryan Emmer, Adam Kargel, Jeffrey S Cook, Simon J Glasser, Neil F Reynolds, John M Shugar, Dan H Yarleque, Christian |
spellingShingle |
Wood, Joanne L Harrison, Stephan Wilson, Ryan Emmer, Adam Kargel, Jeffrey S Cook, Simon J Glasser, Neil F Reynolds, John M Shugar, Dan H Yarleque, Christian Shaking up assumptions: Earthquakes have rarely triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
author_facet |
Wood, Joanne L Harrison, Stephan Wilson, Ryan Emmer, Adam Kargel, Jeffrey S Cook, Simon J Glasser, Neil F Reynolds, John M Shugar, Dan H Yarleque, Christian |
author_sort |
Wood, Joanne L |
title |
Shaking up assumptions: Earthquakes have rarely triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_short |
Shaking up assumptions: Earthquakes have rarely triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_full |
Shaking up assumptions: Earthquakes have rarely triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_fullStr |
Shaking up assumptions: Earthquakes have rarely triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Shaking up assumptions: Earthquakes have rarely triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_sort |
shaking up assumptions: earthquakes have rarely triggered andean glacier lake outburst floods |
publisher |
Authorea, Inc. |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170914534.44756696/v1 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170914534.44756696/v1 |
_version_ |
1800759728104538112 |