Significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves by achieving carbon neutrality
Marine heatwave (MHW), a prolonged period of anomalously warm seawater, has a catastrophic repercussion on marine ecosystems. With global warming, MHWs have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged. To avoid irreversible damages from such extreme events, net-zero carbon emissions by the...
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crwinnower:10.22541/essoar.170689112.22391252/v1 2024-06-02T08:14:48+00:00 Significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves by achieving carbon neutrality Oh, Seok-Geun Son, Seok-Woo Jeong, Sujong Cho, Yang-Ki 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170689112.22391252/v1 unknown Authorea, Inc. posted-content 2024 crwinnower https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170689112.22391252/v1 2024-05-07T14:19:22Z Marine heatwave (MHW), a prolonged period of anomalously warm seawater, has a catastrophic repercussion on marine ecosystems. With global warming, MHWs have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged. To avoid irreversible damages from such extreme events, net-zero carbon emissions by the 2050s, called carbon neutrality, were proposed. Here, we evaluate the impact of carbon neutrality on MHWs in the late 21st century using multi-model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. It is found that if the current regional rivalry over carbon emissions continues (i.e., SSP3-7.0), the MHWs in the late 21st century will become stronger and longer than historical ones, especially in the western boundary current and equatorial current regions. Approximately 68% of the global ocean will be exposed to permanent MHWs, regionally 93% in the Indian Ocean, 76% in the Pacific Ocean, 68% in the Atlantic Ocean, 65% in the Coastal Ocean, and 48% in the Southern Ocean. Such MHWs can be significantly reduced by achieving carbon neutrality (i.e., SSP1-1.9). In particular, the spatial proportion of the ocean exposed to permanent MHWs can be reduced to as low as 0.02 to 0.07%, depending on the regions. This result underscores the critical importance of ongoing efforts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions to reduce the potential ecological risks induced by extreme MHWs. Other/Unknown Material Southern Ocean The Winnower Indian Pacific Southern Ocean |
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Marine heatwave (MHW), a prolonged period of anomalously warm seawater, has a catastrophic repercussion on marine ecosystems. With global warming, MHWs have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged. To avoid irreversible damages from such extreme events, net-zero carbon emissions by the 2050s, called carbon neutrality, were proposed. Here, we evaluate the impact of carbon neutrality on MHWs in the late 21st century using multi-model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. It is found that if the current regional rivalry over carbon emissions continues (i.e., SSP3-7.0), the MHWs in the late 21st century will become stronger and longer than historical ones, especially in the western boundary current and equatorial current regions. Approximately 68% of the global ocean will be exposed to permanent MHWs, regionally 93% in the Indian Ocean, 76% in the Pacific Ocean, 68% in the Atlantic Ocean, 65% in the Coastal Ocean, and 48% in the Southern Ocean. Such MHWs can be significantly reduced by achieving carbon neutrality (i.e., SSP1-1.9). In particular, the spatial proportion of the ocean exposed to permanent MHWs can be reduced to as low as 0.02 to 0.07%, depending on the regions. This result underscores the critical importance of ongoing efforts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions to reduce the potential ecological risks induced by extreme MHWs. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Oh, Seok-Geun Son, Seok-Woo Jeong, Sujong Cho, Yang-Ki |
spellingShingle |
Oh, Seok-Geun Son, Seok-Woo Jeong, Sujong Cho, Yang-Ki Significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves by achieving carbon neutrality |
author_facet |
Oh, Seok-Geun Son, Seok-Woo Jeong, Sujong Cho, Yang-Ki |
author_sort |
Oh, Seok-Geun |
title |
Significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves by achieving carbon neutrality |
title_short |
Significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves by achieving carbon neutrality |
title_full |
Significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves by achieving carbon neutrality |
title_fullStr |
Significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves by achieving carbon neutrality |
title_full_unstemmed |
Significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves by achieving carbon neutrality |
title_sort |
significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves by achieving carbon neutrality |
publisher |
Authorea, Inc. |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170689112.22391252/v1 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170689112.22391252/v1 |
_version_ |
1800738781762945024 |