Trends and projections in climate-related stressors impacting Arctic marine ecosystems -- A CMIP6 model analysis

• Main Authors: Steiner, Nadja S., Reader, Mary Catherine
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: unknown
• Published: Authorea, Inc. 2024
• Subjects: Ocean acidification; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170680227.79348011/v1

Eleven Earth System Models (ESMs) contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were evaluated with respect to climate-related stressors impacting Arctic marine ecosystems (temperature, sea ice, oxygen, ocean acidification). Stressors show regional differences and varying differences over time and space among models. Trend magnitudes increase over time and are highest by end-of-century for temperature and O2. Differences between scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for these variables vary among models and regions, mainly driven by sea-ice retreat. Differences in biogeochemical parameterizations contribute to acidification differences. Projections indicate consistent ocean acidification until 2040 and faster progression for the higher emission scenario thereafter. For SSP5-8.5 all Arctic regions show aragonite undersaturation by 2080, and calcite undersaturation for all but two regions by 2100 for all models. Most regions can avoid calcite undersaturation with lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). All variables show increases in seasonal amplitude, most prominently for temperature and oxygen. Calcium carbonate saturation state (Ω) shows little change to the seasonal range and a suggestion of temporal shifts in extrema. Seasonal changes in Ω may be underestimated due to lacking carbon cycle processes within sea ice in CMIP6 models. The analysis emphasizes regionally varying threats from multiple stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems and highlights the propagation of uncertainties from sea ice to temperature and biogeochemical variables. Large model differences in seasonal cycles emphasize the need for improved model constraints, predominantly the representation of sea-ice decline, to enhance the applicability of CMIP models in multi-stressor impacts assessments.