Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation
The role of internal variability in generating an apparent link between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice (BKS) and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been intensely debated. In particular, the robustness and causality of the link has been questioned by showing that BKS-NAO correlations exhib...
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2023
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169186327.77885828/v1 |
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crwinnower:10.22541/essoar.169186327.77885828/v1 2024-06-02T08:09:44+00:00 Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation Strommen, Kristian Cooper, Fenwick 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169186327.77885828/v1 unknown Authorea, Inc. posted-content 2023 crwinnower https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169186327.77885828/v1 2024-05-07T14:19:29Z The role of internal variability in generating an apparent link between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice (BKS) and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been intensely debated. In particular, the robustness and causality of the link has been questioned by showing that BKS-NAO correlations exhibit nonstationarity in both reanalysis and climate model simulations. We show that the lack of ice observations makes analysis of nonstationarity using reanalysis questionable in the period 1950-1970 and effectively impossible prior to 1950. Model simulations are used to corroborate an argument that nonstationarity is nevertheless expected due to changes in the ice edge variability due to global warming. Consequently, changes in BKS-NAO correlations over time may simply reflect that the ice edge has moved, rather than that there is no causal link. We discuss potential implications for analysis based on coupled climate models, which exhibit large ice edge biases. Other/Unknown Material Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice The Winnower Kara Sea |
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Open Polar |
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The Winnower |
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crwinnower |
language |
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description |
The role of internal variability in generating an apparent link between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice (BKS) and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been intensely debated. In particular, the robustness and causality of the link has been questioned by showing that BKS-NAO correlations exhibit nonstationarity in both reanalysis and climate model simulations. We show that the lack of ice observations makes analysis of nonstationarity using reanalysis questionable in the period 1950-1970 and effectively impossible prior to 1950. Model simulations are used to corroborate an argument that nonstationarity is nevertheless expected due to changes in the ice edge variability due to global warming. Consequently, changes in BKS-NAO correlations over time may simply reflect that the ice edge has moved, rather than that there is no causal link. We discuss potential implications for analysis based on coupled climate models, which exhibit large ice edge biases. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Strommen, Kristian Cooper, Fenwick |
spellingShingle |
Strommen, Kristian Cooper, Fenwick Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
author_facet |
Strommen, Kristian Cooper, Fenwick |
author_sort |
Strommen, Kristian |
title |
Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_short |
Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full |
Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_sort |
physical and unphysical causes of nonstationarity in the relationship between barents-kara sea ice and the north atlantic oscillation |
publisher |
Authorea, Inc. |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169186327.77885828/v1 |
geographic |
Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Kara Sea |
genre |
Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169186327.77885828/v1 |
_version_ |
1800755515858354176 |