Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans‐boundary assisted colonization
• Premise of the study: Climate change may threaten endemic species with extinction, particularly relicts of the Arcto‐Tertiary Forest, by elimination of their contemporary habitat. Projections of future habitat are necessary to plan for conservation of these species. • Methods: We used spline clima...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3732/ajb.1200059 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.3732/ajb.1200059 |
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crwiley:10.3732/ajb.1200059 2024-04-28T08:41:31+00:00 Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans‐boundary assisted colonization Ledig, F. Thomas Rehfeldt, Gerald E. Jaquish, Barry 2012 http://dx.doi.org/10.3732/ajb.1200059 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.3732/ajb.1200059 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor American Journal of Botany volume 99, issue 7, page 1217-1230 ISSN 0002-9122 1537-2197 Plant Science Genetics Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics journal-article 2012 crwiley https://doi.org/10.3732/ajb.1200059 2024-04-08T06:55:57Z • Premise of the study: Climate change may threaten endemic species with extinction, particularly relicts of the Arcto‐Tertiary Forest, by elimination of their contemporary habitat. Projections of future habitat are necessary to plan for conservation of these species. • Methods: We used spline climatic models and modified Random Forests statistical procedures to predict suitable habitats for Brewer spruce ( Picea breweriana ), which is endemic to the Klamath Region of California and Oregon. We used three general circulation models and two sets of carbon emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for future climates. • Key results: Our procedures predicted present occurrence of Brewer spruce perfectly. For the decades 2030, 2060, and 2090, its projected range within the Klamath Region progressively declined, to the point of disappearance in the decade 2090. The climate niche was projected to move north to British Columbia, the Yukon Territory, and southeastern Alaska. • Conclusion: The results emphasize the necessity of assisted colonization and trans‐boundary movement to prevent extinction of Brewer spruce. The projections provide a framework for formulating conservation plans, but planners must also consider regulations regarding international plant transfers. Article in Journal/Newspaper Alaska Yukon Wiley Online Library American Journal of Botany 99 7 1217 1230 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
Plant Science Genetics Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
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Plant Science Genetics Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Ledig, F. Thomas Rehfeldt, Gerald E. Jaquish, Barry Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans‐boundary assisted colonization |
topic_facet |
Plant Science Genetics Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
description |
• Premise of the study: Climate change may threaten endemic species with extinction, particularly relicts of the Arcto‐Tertiary Forest, by elimination of their contemporary habitat. Projections of future habitat are necessary to plan for conservation of these species. • Methods: We used spline climatic models and modified Random Forests statistical procedures to predict suitable habitats for Brewer spruce ( Picea breweriana ), which is endemic to the Klamath Region of California and Oregon. We used three general circulation models and two sets of carbon emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for future climates. • Key results: Our procedures predicted present occurrence of Brewer spruce perfectly. For the decades 2030, 2060, and 2090, its projected range within the Klamath Region progressively declined, to the point of disappearance in the decade 2090. The climate niche was projected to move north to British Columbia, the Yukon Territory, and southeastern Alaska. • Conclusion: The results emphasize the necessity of assisted colonization and trans‐boundary movement to prevent extinction of Brewer spruce. The projections provide a framework for formulating conservation plans, but planners must also consider regulations regarding international plant transfers. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ledig, F. Thomas Rehfeldt, Gerald E. Jaquish, Barry |
author_facet |
Ledig, F. Thomas Rehfeldt, Gerald E. Jaquish, Barry |
author_sort |
Ledig, F. Thomas |
title |
Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans‐boundary assisted colonization |
title_short |
Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans‐boundary assisted colonization |
title_full |
Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans‐boundary assisted colonization |
title_fullStr |
Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans‐boundary assisted colonization |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans‐boundary assisted colonization |
title_sort |
projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: implications for trans‐boundary assisted colonization |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3732/ajb.1200059 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.3732/ajb.1200059 |
genre |
Alaska Yukon |
genre_facet |
Alaska Yukon |
op_source |
American Journal of Botany volume 99, issue 7, page 1217-1230 ISSN 0002-9122 1537-2197 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3732/ajb.1200059 |
container_title |
American Journal of Botany |
container_volume |
99 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1217 |
op_container_end_page |
1230 |
_version_ |
1797571735284875264 |