North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi‐model experiment
Abstract To understand recent climate change in the North Atlantic region and to produce better climate forecasts with uncertainty estimates it is important to determine the atmospheric ‘response’ to Atlantic sea‐surface temperature (SST) forcing. There have been conflicting results regarding the st...
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crwiley:10.1256/qj.03.207 2024-09-09T19:54:48+00:00 North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi‐model experiment Rodwell, M. J. Drévillon, M. Frankignoul, C. Hurrell, J. W. Pohlmann, H. Stendel, M. Sutton, R. T. 2004 http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/qj.03.207 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1256%2Fqj.03.207 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1256/qj.03.207 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 130, issue 601, page 2013-2032 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2004 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.03.207 2024-07-30T04:21:11Z Abstract To understand recent climate change in the North Atlantic region and to produce better climate forecasts with uncertainty estimates it is important to determine the atmospheric ‘response’ to Atlantic sea‐surface temperature (SST) forcing. There have been conflicting results regarding the strength, character and tropical‐versus‐extratropical origin of this response. For model‐based studies, this may indicate differing sensitivities to Atlantic SST, but the comparison is complicated by changes in experimental design. Here, a highly controlled experiment with five atmospheric models is undertaken. The influence of realistic (if reasonably strong) and optimally chosen North Atlantic (equator to 70 ° N) SST anomalies is isolated. Unexpected global agreement between the models is found (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eurasian temperatures, rainfall over the Americas and Africa, and the Asian monsoon). The extratropical North Atlantic region response appears to be associated with remote Caribbean and tropical Atlantic SST anomalies, and with local forcing. Some features such as the European winter‐temperature response would be stronger than atmospheric ‘noise’ if the prescribed SST anomalies persisted for just two years. More generally, Atlantic air–sea interaction appears to be important for climate variability on the 30‐year timescale and, thus, to be important in the climate‐change context. The multi‐model mean response patterns are in reasonable agreement with observational estimates, although the model response magnitudes may be too weak. The similarity between their responses helps to reconcile models. Inter‐model differences do still exist and these are discussed and quantified. © Crown copyright, 2004. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 130 601 2013 2032 |
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English |
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Abstract To understand recent climate change in the North Atlantic region and to produce better climate forecasts with uncertainty estimates it is important to determine the atmospheric ‘response’ to Atlantic sea‐surface temperature (SST) forcing. There have been conflicting results regarding the strength, character and tropical‐versus‐extratropical origin of this response. For model‐based studies, this may indicate differing sensitivities to Atlantic SST, but the comparison is complicated by changes in experimental design. Here, a highly controlled experiment with five atmospheric models is undertaken. The influence of realistic (if reasonably strong) and optimally chosen North Atlantic (equator to 70 ° N) SST anomalies is isolated. Unexpected global agreement between the models is found (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eurasian temperatures, rainfall over the Americas and Africa, and the Asian monsoon). The extratropical North Atlantic region response appears to be associated with remote Caribbean and tropical Atlantic SST anomalies, and with local forcing. Some features such as the European winter‐temperature response would be stronger than atmospheric ‘noise’ if the prescribed SST anomalies persisted for just two years. More generally, Atlantic air–sea interaction appears to be important for climate variability on the 30‐year timescale and, thus, to be important in the climate‐change context. The multi‐model mean response patterns are in reasonable agreement with observational estimates, although the model response magnitudes may be too weak. The similarity between their responses helps to reconcile models. Inter‐model differences do still exist and these are discussed and quantified. © Crown copyright, 2004. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rodwell, M. J. Drévillon, M. Frankignoul, C. Hurrell, J. W. Pohlmann, H. Stendel, M. Sutton, R. T. |
spellingShingle |
Rodwell, M. J. Drévillon, M. Frankignoul, C. Hurrell, J. W. Pohlmann, H. Stendel, M. Sutton, R. T. North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi‐model experiment |
author_facet |
Rodwell, M. J. Drévillon, M. Frankignoul, C. Hurrell, J. W. Pohlmann, H. Stendel, M. Sutton, R. T. |
author_sort |
Rodwell, M. J. |
title |
North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi‐model experiment |
title_short |
North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi‐model experiment |
title_full |
North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi‐model experiment |
title_fullStr |
North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi‐model experiment |
title_full_unstemmed |
North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi‐model experiment |
title_sort |
north atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi‐model experiment |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/qj.03.207 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1256%2Fqj.03.207 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1256/qj.03.207 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 130, issue 601, page 2013-2032 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.03.207 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
130 |
container_issue |
601 |
container_start_page |
2013 |
op_container_end_page |
2032 |
_version_ |
1809924208559390720 |