High‐resolution limited‐area ensemble predictions based on low‐resolution targeted singular vectors
Abstract The operational limited‐area model, HIRLAM, at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute is used at 0.25 ° latitude/longitude resolution for ensemble weather prediction over Northern Europe and adjacent parts of the North Atlantic Ocean; this system is called LAMEPS. Initial and lateral bounda...
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crwiley:10.1256/003590002320373319 2023-12-03T10:27:08+01:00 High‐resolution limited‐area ensemble predictions based on low‐resolution targeted singular vectors Frogner, Inger‐Lise Iversen, Trond 2002 http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/003590002320373319 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1256%2F003590002320373319 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1256/003590002320373319 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 128, issue 582, page 1321-1341 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X Atmospheric Science journal-article 2002 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1256/003590002320373319 2023-11-09T14:12:41Z Abstract The operational limited‐area model, HIRLAM, at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute is used at 0.25 ° latitude/longitude resolution for ensemble weather prediction over Northern Europe and adjacent parts of the North Atlantic Ocean; this system is called LAMEPS. Initial and lateral boundary perturbations are taken from coarse‐resolution European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts global ensemble members based on targeted singular vectors (TEPS). Five winter and five summer cases in 1997 consisting of 20 ensemble members plus one control forecast are integrated. Two sets of ensembles are generated, one for which both initial and lateral boundary conditions are perturbed, and another with only the initial fields perturbed. The LAMEPS results are compared to those of TEPS using the following measures: r.m.s. ensemble spread of 500 hPa geopotential height; r.m.s. ensemble spread of mean‐sea‐level pressure; Brier Skill Scores (BSS); Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves; and cost/loss analyses. For forecasts longer than 12 hours, all measures show that perturbing the boundary fields is crucial for the performance of LAMEPS. For the winter cases TEPS has slightly larger ensemble spread than LAMEPS, but this is reversed for the summer cases. Results from BSS, ROC and cost/loss analyses show that LAMEPS performed considerably better than TEPS for precipitation, a result that is promising for forecasting extreme precipitation amounts. We believe this result to be linked to the high predictability of mesoscale flows controlled by complex topography. For two‐metre temperature, however, TEPS frequently performed better than LAMEPS. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 128 582 1321 1341 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Science |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Science Frogner, Inger‐Lise Iversen, Trond High‐resolution limited‐area ensemble predictions based on low‐resolution targeted singular vectors |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Science |
description |
Abstract The operational limited‐area model, HIRLAM, at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute is used at 0.25 ° latitude/longitude resolution for ensemble weather prediction over Northern Europe and adjacent parts of the North Atlantic Ocean; this system is called LAMEPS. Initial and lateral boundary perturbations are taken from coarse‐resolution European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts global ensemble members based on targeted singular vectors (TEPS). Five winter and five summer cases in 1997 consisting of 20 ensemble members plus one control forecast are integrated. Two sets of ensembles are generated, one for which both initial and lateral boundary conditions are perturbed, and another with only the initial fields perturbed. The LAMEPS results are compared to those of TEPS using the following measures: r.m.s. ensemble spread of 500 hPa geopotential height; r.m.s. ensemble spread of mean‐sea‐level pressure; Brier Skill Scores (BSS); Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves; and cost/loss analyses. For forecasts longer than 12 hours, all measures show that perturbing the boundary fields is crucial for the performance of LAMEPS. For the winter cases TEPS has slightly larger ensemble spread than LAMEPS, but this is reversed for the summer cases. Results from BSS, ROC and cost/loss analyses show that LAMEPS performed considerably better than TEPS for precipitation, a result that is promising for forecasting extreme precipitation amounts. We believe this result to be linked to the high predictability of mesoscale flows controlled by complex topography. For two‐metre temperature, however, TEPS frequently performed better than LAMEPS. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Frogner, Inger‐Lise Iversen, Trond |
author_facet |
Frogner, Inger‐Lise Iversen, Trond |
author_sort |
Frogner, Inger‐Lise |
title |
High‐resolution limited‐area ensemble predictions based on low‐resolution targeted singular vectors |
title_short |
High‐resolution limited‐area ensemble predictions based on low‐resolution targeted singular vectors |
title_full |
High‐resolution limited‐area ensemble predictions based on low‐resolution targeted singular vectors |
title_fullStr |
High‐resolution limited‐area ensemble predictions based on low‐resolution targeted singular vectors |
title_full_unstemmed |
High‐resolution limited‐area ensemble predictions based on low‐resolution targeted singular vectors |
title_sort |
high‐resolution limited‐area ensemble predictions based on low‐resolution targeted singular vectors |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2002 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/003590002320373319 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1256%2F003590002320373319 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1256/003590002320373319 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 128, issue 582, page 1321-1341 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1256/003590002320373319 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
128 |
container_issue |
582 |
container_start_page |
1321 |
op_container_end_page |
1341 |
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1784276756179451904 |