An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic
Abstract In this study, we propose a time‐dependent susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS‐CoV‐2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several...
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crwiley:10.1111/risa.13858 2023-12-03T10:24:49+01:00 An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/risa.13858 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/risa.13858 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Risk Analysis volume 43, issue 1, page 144-155 ISSN 0272-4332 1539-6924 Physiology (medical) Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 2023-11-09T13:29:04Z Abstract In this study, we propose a time‐dependent susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS‐CoV‐2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) Risk Analysis 43 1 144 155 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
Physiology (medical) Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality |
spellingShingle |
Physiology (medical) Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
topic_facet |
Physiology (medical) Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality |
description |
Abstract In this study, we propose a time‐dependent susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS‐CoV‐2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo |
author_facet |
Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo |
author_sort |
Girardi, Paolo |
title |
An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_short |
An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_full |
An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_fullStr |
An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_sort |
seir model with time‐varying coefficients for analyzing the sars‐cov‐2 epidemic |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/risa.13858 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/risa.13858 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Risk Analysis volume 43, issue 1, page 144-155 ISSN 0272-4332 1539-6924 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 |
container_title |
Risk Analysis |
container_volume |
43 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
144 |
op_container_end_page |
155 |
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1784273392663265280 |