ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN A MULTISPECIES AGE‐STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: THE EFFECTS OF DATA LIMITATIONS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
Abstract Performance of a multispecies age‐structured assessment (MSASA) model in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) relative to changes in data and model assumptions was examined through simulation exercises. Species included arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias ), Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ), w...
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crwiley:10.1111/nrm.12063 2024-06-23T07:57:11+00:00 ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN A MULTISPECIES AGE‐STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: THE EFFECTS OF DATA LIMITATIONS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS VAN KIRK, KRAY F. QUINN, TERRANCE J. COLLIE, JEREMY S. A'MAR, Z. T. Alaska Sea Grant Pollock Conservation Cooperative Research Center, School of Fisheries and Ocean Science, University of Alaska, Fairbanks 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12063 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fnrm.12063 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/nrm.12063 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Natural Resource Modeling volume 28, issue 2, page 184-205 ISSN 0890-8575 1939-7445 journal-article 2015 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12063 2024-06-11T04:51:40Z Abstract Performance of a multispecies age‐structured assessment (MSASA) model in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) relative to changes in data and model assumptions was examined through simulation exercises. Species included arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias ), Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ), walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma ), Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis ), and Steller sea lion ( Eumetopias jubatus ). Age‐specific predation mortality was estimated as a flexible function of predator and prey abundances and fitted to diet data. Simulated data sets were constructed by applying random error to estimates of catch, survey, and diet data from an operating model, whose structure was identical to that of the estimating model. Simulations explored the effects of data variability, mismatched assumptions regarding model structure, and lack of diet data on model performance. Model misspecification and uninformative diet data had the greatest influence on model performance. Given the current emphasis on the development of ecosystem‐based models and management, prioritizing the rigorous sampling of diet data would best facilitate the development of predation models useful to management agencies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Theragra chalcogramma Alaska Wiley Online Library Gulf of Alaska Pacific Natural Resource Modeling 28 2 184 205 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Performance of a multispecies age‐structured assessment (MSASA) model in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) relative to changes in data and model assumptions was examined through simulation exercises. Species included arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias ), Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ), walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma ), Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis ), and Steller sea lion ( Eumetopias jubatus ). Age‐specific predation mortality was estimated as a flexible function of predator and prey abundances and fitted to diet data. Simulated data sets were constructed by applying random error to estimates of catch, survey, and diet data from an operating model, whose structure was identical to that of the estimating model. Simulations explored the effects of data variability, mismatched assumptions regarding model structure, and lack of diet data on model performance. Model misspecification and uninformative diet data had the greatest influence on model performance. Given the current emphasis on the development of ecosystem‐based models and management, prioritizing the rigorous sampling of diet data would best facilitate the development of predation models useful to management agencies. |
author2 |
Alaska Sea Grant Pollock Conservation Cooperative Research Center, School of Fisheries and Ocean Science, University of Alaska, Fairbanks |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
VAN KIRK, KRAY F. QUINN, TERRANCE J. COLLIE, JEREMY S. A'MAR, Z. T. |
spellingShingle |
VAN KIRK, KRAY F. QUINN, TERRANCE J. COLLIE, JEREMY S. A'MAR, Z. T. ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN A MULTISPECIES AGE‐STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: THE EFFECTS OF DATA LIMITATIONS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS |
author_facet |
VAN KIRK, KRAY F. QUINN, TERRANCE J. COLLIE, JEREMY S. A'MAR, Z. T. |
author_sort |
VAN KIRK, KRAY F. |
title |
ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN A MULTISPECIES AGE‐STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: THE EFFECTS OF DATA LIMITATIONS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS |
title_short |
ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN A MULTISPECIES AGE‐STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: THE EFFECTS OF DATA LIMITATIONS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS |
title_full |
ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN A MULTISPECIES AGE‐STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: THE EFFECTS OF DATA LIMITATIONS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS |
title_fullStr |
ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN A MULTISPECIES AGE‐STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: THE EFFECTS OF DATA LIMITATIONS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS |
title_full_unstemmed |
ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN A MULTISPECIES AGE‐STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: THE EFFECTS OF DATA LIMITATIONS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS |
title_sort |
assessing uncertainty in a multispecies age‐structured assessment framework: the effects of data limitations and model assumptions |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12063 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fnrm.12063 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/nrm.12063 |
geographic |
Gulf of Alaska Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Gulf of Alaska Pacific |
genre |
Theragra chalcogramma Alaska |
genre_facet |
Theragra chalcogramma Alaska |
op_source |
Natural Resource Modeling volume 28, issue 2, page 184-205 ISSN 0890-8575 1939-7445 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12063 |
container_title |
Natural Resource Modeling |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
184 |
op_container_end_page |
205 |
_version_ |
1802650694825541632 |