Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population
Abstract Harbor seal breeding behavior and habitats constrain opportunities for individual‐based studies, and no current estimates of both survival and fecundity exist for any of the populations studied worldwide. As a result, the drivers underlying the variable trends in abundance exhibited by harb...
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crwiley:10.1111/mms.12070 2023-12-03T10:23:45+01:00 Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population Cordes, Line S. Thompson, Paul M. 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mms.12070 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fmms.12070 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/mms.12070 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Marine Mammal Science volume 30, issue 2, page 691-705 ISSN 0824-0469 1748-7692 Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics journal-article 2013 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12070 2023-11-09T13:25:42Z Abstract Harbor seal breeding behavior and habitats constrain opportunities for individual‐based studies, and no current estimates of both survival and fecundity exist for any of the populations studied worldwide. As a result, the drivers underlying the variable trends in abundance exhibited by harbor seal populations around the world remain uncertain. We developed an individual‐based study of harbor seals in northeast Scotland, whereby data were collected during daily photo‐identification surveys throughout the pupping seasons between 2006 and 2011. However, a consequence of observing seals remotely meant that information on sex, maturity‐stage, or breeding status was not always available. To provide unbiased estimates of survival rates we conditioned initial release of individuals on the first time sex was known to estimate sex‐specific survival rates, while a robust design multistate model accounting for uncertainty in breeding status was used to estimate reproductive rate of multiparous and ≥3‐yr‐old females. Survival rates were estimated at 0.95 (95% CI = 0.91–0.97) for females and 0.92 (0.83–0.96) for males, while reproductive rate was estimated at 0.89 (0.75–0.95) for multiparous and 0.69 (0.64–0.74) for ≥3‐yr‐old females. Stage‐based population modeling indicated that this population should be recovering, even under the current shooting quotas implemented by the recent management plan. Article in Journal/Newspaper harbor seal Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) Marine Mammal Science 30 2 691 705 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
spellingShingle |
Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Cordes, Line S. Thompson, Paul M. Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population |
topic_facet |
Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
description |
Abstract Harbor seal breeding behavior and habitats constrain opportunities for individual‐based studies, and no current estimates of both survival and fecundity exist for any of the populations studied worldwide. As a result, the drivers underlying the variable trends in abundance exhibited by harbor seal populations around the world remain uncertain. We developed an individual‐based study of harbor seals in northeast Scotland, whereby data were collected during daily photo‐identification surveys throughout the pupping seasons between 2006 and 2011. However, a consequence of observing seals remotely meant that information on sex, maturity‐stage, or breeding status was not always available. To provide unbiased estimates of survival rates we conditioned initial release of individuals on the first time sex was known to estimate sex‐specific survival rates, while a robust design multistate model accounting for uncertainty in breeding status was used to estimate reproductive rate of multiparous and ≥3‐yr‐old females. Survival rates were estimated at 0.95 (95% CI = 0.91–0.97) for females and 0.92 (0.83–0.96) for males, while reproductive rate was estimated at 0.89 (0.75–0.95) for multiparous and 0.69 (0.64–0.74) for ≥3‐yr‐old females. Stage‐based population modeling indicated that this population should be recovering, even under the current shooting quotas implemented by the recent management plan. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cordes, Line S. Thompson, Paul M. |
author_facet |
Cordes, Line S. Thompson, Paul M. |
author_sort |
Cordes, Line S. |
title |
Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population |
title_short |
Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population |
title_full |
Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population |
title_fullStr |
Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population |
title_sort |
mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mms.12070 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fmms.12070 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/mms.12070 |
genre |
harbor seal |
genre_facet |
harbor seal |
op_source |
Marine Mammal Science volume 30, issue 2, page 691-705 ISSN 0824-0469 1748-7692 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12070 |
container_title |
Marine Mammal Science |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
691 |
op_container_end_page |
705 |
_version_ |
1784271991867441152 |