A numerical tool to predict ice growth in lakes

• Published in: Lakes & Reservoirs: Science, Policy and Management for Sustainable Use
• Main Author: Toniolo, Horacio
• Other Authors: GWS partially supported this work
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2014
• Subjects: Water Science and Technology; Four Lakes; Tundra
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/lre.12078; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Flre.12078; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/lre.12078; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/lre.12078

Abstract Oil and gas exploration activities on the N orth of S lope of A laska rely on ice roads to provide access to the exploration sites, with negligible effects on the tundra. The construction of ice roads requires a large volume of water which, in turn, poses challenges to water resource managers. A tool capable of predicting ice thickness in a given lake could certainly benefit the oil industry. This study focuses on the development and use of such a predictive tool. Using a simplified S tefan equation, the tool is based on a combination of three weather scenarios (warm, average and cold winters), current winter condition and ice thickness measurements. It was applied to four lakes located on the A rctic C oastal P lain and one lake in the foothill area. The study results indicate the model predictions are relatively accurate (7% average percentage error) for monthly time spans. The study results also reveal a temporal variation in a coefficient used in the calculations, although previous literature utilized a constant coefficient to estimate the ice thickness.