Estimating Spatial Changes Over Time of Arctic Sea Ice using Hidden 2×2 Tables
Arctic sea ice extent has been of considerable interest to scientists in recent years, mainly due to its decreasing temporal trend over the past 20 years. In this article, we propose a hierarchical spatio‐temporal generalized linear model for binary Arctic sea‐ice‐extent data, where statistical depe...
Published in: | Journal of Time Series Analysis |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12425 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fjtsa.12425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jtsa.12425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/jtsa.12425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/jtsa.12425 |
id |
crwiley:10.1111/jtsa.12425 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1111/jtsa.12425 2024-09-15T18:34:15+00:00 Estimating Spatial Changes Over Time of Arctic Sea Ice using Hidden 2×2 Tables Zhang, Bohai Cressie, Noel Australian Research Council 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12425 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fjtsa.12425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jtsa.12425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/jtsa.12425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/jtsa.12425 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Journal of Time Series Analysis volume 40, issue 3, page 288-311 ISSN 0143-9782 1467-9892 journal-article 2018 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12425 2024-08-13T04:12:43Z Arctic sea ice extent has been of considerable interest to scientists in recent years, mainly due to its decreasing temporal trend over the past 20 years. In this article, we propose a hierarchical spatio‐temporal generalized linear model for binary Arctic sea‐ice‐extent data, where statistical dependencies in the data are modeled through a latent spatio‐temporal linear mixed effects model. By using a fixed number of spatial basis functions, the resulting model achieves both dimension reduction and non‐stationarity for spatial fields at different time points. An EM algorithm is proposed to estimate model parameters, and an empirical–hierarchical‐modeling approach is applied to obtain the predictive distribution of the latent spatio‐temporal process. We illustrate the accuracy of the parameter estimation through a simulation study. The hierarchical model is applied to spatial Arctic sea‐ice‐extent data in the month of September for 20 years in the recent past, where several posterior summaries are obtained to detect the changes of Arctic sea ice cover. In particular, we consider a time series of latent 2 × 2 tables to infer the spatial changes of Arctic sea ice over time. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Wiley Online Library Journal of Time Series Analysis 40 3 288 311 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic sea ice extent has been of considerable interest to scientists in recent years, mainly due to its decreasing temporal trend over the past 20 years. In this article, we propose a hierarchical spatio‐temporal generalized linear model for binary Arctic sea‐ice‐extent data, where statistical dependencies in the data are modeled through a latent spatio‐temporal linear mixed effects model. By using a fixed number of spatial basis functions, the resulting model achieves both dimension reduction and non‐stationarity for spatial fields at different time points. An EM algorithm is proposed to estimate model parameters, and an empirical–hierarchical‐modeling approach is applied to obtain the predictive distribution of the latent spatio‐temporal process. We illustrate the accuracy of the parameter estimation through a simulation study. The hierarchical model is applied to spatial Arctic sea‐ice‐extent data in the month of September for 20 years in the recent past, where several posterior summaries are obtained to detect the changes of Arctic sea ice cover. In particular, we consider a time series of latent 2 × 2 tables to infer the spatial changes of Arctic sea ice over time. |
author2 |
Australian Research Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhang, Bohai Cressie, Noel |
spellingShingle |
Zhang, Bohai Cressie, Noel Estimating Spatial Changes Over Time of Arctic Sea Ice using Hidden 2×2 Tables |
author_facet |
Zhang, Bohai Cressie, Noel |
author_sort |
Zhang, Bohai |
title |
Estimating Spatial Changes Over Time of Arctic Sea Ice using Hidden 2×2 Tables |
title_short |
Estimating Spatial Changes Over Time of Arctic Sea Ice using Hidden 2×2 Tables |
title_full |
Estimating Spatial Changes Over Time of Arctic Sea Ice using Hidden 2×2 Tables |
title_fullStr |
Estimating Spatial Changes Over Time of Arctic Sea Ice using Hidden 2×2 Tables |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating Spatial Changes Over Time of Arctic Sea Ice using Hidden 2×2 Tables |
title_sort |
estimating spatial changes over time of arctic sea ice using hidden 2×2 tables |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12425 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fjtsa.12425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jtsa.12425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/jtsa.12425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/jtsa.12425 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Time Series Analysis volume 40, issue 3, page 288-311 ISSN 0143-9782 1467-9892 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12425 |
container_title |
Journal of Time Series Analysis |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
288 |
op_container_end_page |
311 |
_version_ |
1810476056343216128 |