Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios
Abstract Climate change has profound effects on the distribution of kelp forests in the Arctic and sub‐Arctic. However, studies on the responses of kelps to climate change, particularly along the sub‐Arctic regions of the Alaska coast, are limited. Eualaria fistulosa is a foundational kelp species i...
Published in: | Journal of Phycology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jpy.13493 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jpy.13493 |
id |
crwiley:10.1111/jpy.13493 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1111/jpy.13493 2024-09-30T14:29:28+00:00 Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios Li, Huiru Qu, Junmei Zhang, Zhixin Kang, Eun Ju Edwards, Matthew S. Kim, Ju‐Hyoung Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology National Science Foundation Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology promotion 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jpy.13493 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jpy.13493 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Phycology ISSN 0022-3646 1529-8817 journal-article 2024 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/jpy.13493 2024-09-19T04:19:25Z Abstract Climate change has profound effects on the distribution of kelp forests in the Arctic and sub‐Arctic. However, studies on the responses of kelps to climate change, particularly along the sub‐Arctic regions of the Alaska coast, are limited. Eualaria fistulosa is a foundational kelp species in the Aleutian Islands, with an east–west distribution that extends from Japan to southern southwest Alaska. In this study, we utilized a species distribution model (SDM) to explore changes in the future habitat suitability of E. fistulosa under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our model exhibited relatively high predictive performance, validating our SDM predictions. Notably, the SDM results indicate that minimum sea surface temperature, annual range in sea surface temperatures, and annual mean current velocities are the three most important predictor variables determining E. fistulosa 's distribution. Furthermore, the projected geographic distribution of Eualaria is generally consistent with its observed occurrence records. However, under high emission scenarios (SSP5‐8.5), E. fistulosa is predicted to contract its distribution range by 9.0% by 2100, with widespread disappearance along the southeast Alaskan coast and limited northward migration to Kamchatka Krai in Russia and Bristol Bay in Alaska. These findings contribute valuable insights for conservation strategies via addressing climate‐induced alterations in sub‐Arctic kelp distribution. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Kamchatka Alaska Aleutian Islands Wiley Online Library Arctic Kamchatka Krai ENVELOPE(159.000,159.000,55.000,55.000) Journal of Phycology |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Climate change has profound effects on the distribution of kelp forests in the Arctic and sub‐Arctic. However, studies on the responses of kelps to climate change, particularly along the sub‐Arctic regions of the Alaska coast, are limited. Eualaria fistulosa is a foundational kelp species in the Aleutian Islands, with an east–west distribution that extends from Japan to southern southwest Alaska. In this study, we utilized a species distribution model (SDM) to explore changes in the future habitat suitability of E. fistulosa under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our model exhibited relatively high predictive performance, validating our SDM predictions. Notably, the SDM results indicate that minimum sea surface temperature, annual range in sea surface temperatures, and annual mean current velocities are the three most important predictor variables determining E. fistulosa 's distribution. Furthermore, the projected geographic distribution of Eualaria is generally consistent with its observed occurrence records. However, under high emission scenarios (SSP5‐8.5), E. fistulosa is predicted to contract its distribution range by 9.0% by 2100, with widespread disappearance along the southeast Alaskan coast and limited northward migration to Kamchatka Krai in Russia and Bristol Bay in Alaska. These findings contribute valuable insights for conservation strategies via addressing climate‐induced alterations in sub‐Arctic kelp distribution. |
author2 |
Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology National Science Foundation Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology promotion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Li, Huiru Qu, Junmei Zhang, Zhixin Kang, Eun Ju Edwards, Matthew S. Kim, Ju‐Hyoung |
spellingShingle |
Li, Huiru Qu, Junmei Zhang, Zhixin Kang, Eun Ju Edwards, Matthew S. Kim, Ju‐Hyoung Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios |
author_facet |
Li, Huiru Qu, Junmei Zhang, Zhixin Kang, Eun Ju Edwards, Matthew S. Kim, Ju‐Hyoung |
author_sort |
Li, Huiru |
title |
Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios |
title_short |
Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios |
title_full |
Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios |
title_sort |
shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jpy.13493 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jpy.13493 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(159.000,159.000,55.000,55.000) |
geographic |
Arctic Kamchatka Krai |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kamchatka Krai |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Kamchatka Alaska Aleutian Islands |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Kamchatka Alaska Aleutian Islands |
op_source |
Journal of Phycology ISSN 0022-3646 1529-8817 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/jpy.13493 |
container_title |
Journal of Phycology |
_version_ |
1811634765566050304 |