Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub‐Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios

Abstract Climate change has profound effects on the distribution of kelp forests in the Arctic and sub‐Arctic. However, studies on the responses of kelps to climate change, particularly along the sub‐Arctic regions of the Alaska coast, are limited. Eualaria fistulosa is a foundational kelp species i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Phycology
Main Authors: Li, Huiru, Qu, Junmei, Zhang, Zhixin, Kang, Eun Ju, Edwards, Matthew S., Kim, Ju‐Hyoung
Other Authors: Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, National Science Foundation, Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology promotion
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024
Subjects:
Arctic
Kamchatka Krai
Climate change
Kamchatka
Alaska
Aleutian Islands
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jpy.13493
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jpy.13493
Description
Summary:Abstract Climate change has profound effects on the distribution of kelp forests in the Arctic and sub‐Arctic. However, studies on the responses of kelps to climate change, particularly along the sub‐Arctic regions of the Alaska coast, are limited. Eualaria fistulosa is a foundational kelp species in the Aleutian Islands, with an east–west distribution that extends from Japan to southern southwest Alaska. In this study, we utilized a species distribution model (SDM) to explore changes in the future habitat suitability of E. fistulosa under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our model exhibited relatively high predictive performance, validating our SDM predictions. Notably, the SDM results indicate that minimum sea surface temperature, annual range in sea surface temperatures, and annual mean current velocities are the three most important predictor variables determining E. fistulosa 's distribution. Furthermore, the projected geographic distribution of Eualaria is generally consistent with its observed occurrence records. However, under high emission scenarios (SSP5‐8.5), E. fistulosa is predicted to contract its distribution range by 9.0% by 2100, with widespread disappearance along the southeast Alaskan coast and limited northward migration to Kamchatka Krai in Russia and Bristol Bay in Alaska. These findings contribute valuable insights for conservation strategies via addressing climate‐induced alterations in sub‐Arctic kelp distribution.

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