Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Abstract Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life‐history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchm...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jfb.15603 |
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crwiley:10.1111/jfb.15603 2024-09-09T19:30:20+00:00 Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar Rinaldo, Adrian de Eyto, Elvira Reed, Thomas Gjelland, Karl Øystein McGinnity, Philip MSCA Science Foundation Ireland 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jfb.15603 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Fish Biology volume 104, issue 3, page 647-661 ISSN 0022-1112 1095-8649 journal-article 2023 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 2024-07-11T04:34:20Z Abstract Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life‐history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life‐history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation‐based atmospheric forcing data. Length‐at‐age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2‐year‐old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1‐year‐old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size‐based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size‐based threshold will instead become 2‐year‐old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2‐year‐old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age‐ and size‐at‐seaward migration could have cascading effects on age‐ and size‐at‐maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length‐at‐age model with minimal input requirements, fostering ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon Salmo salar Wiley Online Library Journal of Fish Biology |
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English |
description |
Abstract Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life‐history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life‐history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation‐based atmospheric forcing data. Length‐at‐age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2‐year‐old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1‐year‐old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size‐based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size‐based threshold will instead become 2‐year‐old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2‐year‐old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age‐ and size‐at‐seaward migration could have cascading effects on age‐ and size‐at‐maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length‐at‐age model with minimal input requirements, fostering ... |
author2 |
MSCA Science Foundation Ireland |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rinaldo, Adrian de Eyto, Elvira Reed, Thomas Gjelland, Karl Øystein McGinnity, Philip |
spellingShingle |
Rinaldo, Adrian de Eyto, Elvira Reed, Thomas Gjelland, Karl Øystein McGinnity, Philip Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
author_facet |
Rinaldo, Adrian de Eyto, Elvira Reed, Thomas Gjelland, Karl Øystein McGinnity, Philip |
author_sort |
Rinaldo, Adrian |
title |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_short |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_full |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_fullStr |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_sort |
global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in atlantic salmon salmo salar |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jfb.15603 |
genre |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
op_source |
Journal of Fish Biology volume 104, issue 3, page 647-661 ISSN 0022-1112 1095-8649 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 |
container_title |
Journal of Fish Biology |
_version_ |
1809899314655264768 |