PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1
ABSTRACT: Two general circulation models (GCMs) used in the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S., particularly during winter. This precipitation incr...
Published in: | JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x |
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crwiley:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x 2024-06-23T07:45:14+00:00 PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1 Felzer, Benjamin Heard, Preston 1999 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association volume 35, issue 6, page 1327-1339 ISSN 1093-474X 1752-1688 journal-article 1999 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x 2024-06-11T04:45:34Z ABSTRACT: Two general circulation models (GCMs) used in the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S., particularly during winter. This precipitation increase is an extension of a larger region of increased precipitation in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of North America that is associated with a deepened and southward‐shifted Aleutian Low, a weaker subtropical high, and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The models differ in their simulation of precipitation anomalies over the southeastern U.S., with CGCM1 showing drier conditions and HadCM2 showing wetter conditions in the future. While both models show decreased frequency of Atlantic storms, consistent with decreased meridional and land/sea temperature gradients, the more coastal position of the storm track in CGCM1 results in less precipitation than modern along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. During summer, differences in land surface models within the two GCMs sometimes lead to differences in soil moisture that feed back to the precipitation over land due to available moisture. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Wiley Online Library Pacific JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 6 1327 1339 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT: Two general circulation models (GCMs) used in the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S., particularly during winter. This precipitation increase is an extension of a larger region of increased precipitation in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of North America that is associated with a deepened and southward‐shifted Aleutian Low, a weaker subtropical high, and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The models differ in their simulation of precipitation anomalies over the southeastern U.S., with CGCM1 showing drier conditions and HadCM2 showing wetter conditions in the future. While both models show decreased frequency of Atlantic storms, consistent with decreased meridional and land/sea temperature gradients, the more coastal position of the storm track in CGCM1 results in less precipitation than modern along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. During summer, differences in land surface models within the two GCMs sometimes lead to differences in soil moisture that feed back to the precipitation over land due to available moisture. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Felzer, Benjamin Heard, Preston |
spellingShingle |
Felzer, Benjamin Heard, Preston PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1 |
author_facet |
Felzer, Benjamin Heard, Preston |
author_sort |
Felzer, Benjamin |
title |
PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1 |
title_short |
PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1 |
title_full |
PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1 |
title_fullStr |
PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1 |
title_full_unstemmed |
PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1 |
title_sort |
precipitation differences amongst gcms used for the u.s. national assessment 1 |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
1999 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
aleutian low |
genre_facet |
aleutian low |
op_source |
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association volume 35, issue 6, page 1327-1339 ISSN 1093-474X 1752-1688 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04218.x |
container_title |
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association |
container_volume |
35 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1327 |
op_container_end_page |
1339 |
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1802638460649996288 |