EVIDENCE FOR INCREASES IN ANTARCTIC BLUE WHALES BASED ON BAYESIAN MODELLING
A bstract Antarctic blue whales ( Balaenoptera musculus intermedia ) are the largest and formerly most abundant blue whale subspecies, but were hunted to near extinction last century. Estimated whaling mortality was unsustainable from 1928 to 1972 (except during 1942–1944), depleting them from 239,0...
Published in: | Marine Mammal Science |
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crwiley:10.1111/j.1748-7692.2004.tb01190.x 2024-09-09T19:02:15+00:00 EVIDENCE FOR INCREASES IN ANTARCTIC BLUE WHALES BASED ON BAYESIAN MODELLING Branch, Trevor A. Matsuoka, Koji Miyashita, Tomio 2004 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2004.tb01190.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1748-7692.2004.tb01190.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2004.tb01190.x en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Marine Mammal Science volume 20, issue 4, page 726-754 ISSN 0824-0469 1748-7692 journal-article 2004 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2004.tb01190.x 2024-08-06T04:14:26Z A bstract Antarctic blue whales ( Balaenoptera musculus intermedia ) are the largest and formerly most abundant blue whale subspecies, but were hunted to near extinction last century. Estimated whaling mortality was unsustainable from 1928 to 1972 (except during 1942–1944), depleting them from 239,000 (95% interval 202,000–311,000) to a low of 360 (150–840) in 1973. Obtaining statistical evidence for subsequent increases has proved difficult due to their scarcity. We fitted Bayesian models to three sighting series (1968–2001), constraining maximum rates of increase to 12% per annum. These models indicated that Antarctic blue whales are increasing at a mean rate of 7.3% per annum (1.4%–11.6%). Informative priors based on blue whale biology (4.3%, SD = 1.9%) and a Bayesian hierarchical meta‐analysis of increase rates in other blue whale populations (−3%, SD = 11.6%), suggest plausible increase rates are lower (although the latter has wide intervals), but a meta‐analysis of other mysticetes obtains similar rates of increase (6.7%, SD = 4.0%). Possible biases affecting the input abundance estimates are discussed. Although Antarctic blue whales appear to have been increasing since Sovier illegal whaling ended in 1972, they still need to be protected‐their estimated 1996 population size, 1,700 (860–2,900), was just 0.7% (0.3%–1.3%) of the pre‐exploitation level. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Balaenoptera musculus Blue whale Wiley Online Library Antarctic Marine Mammal Science 20 4 726 754 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
A bstract Antarctic blue whales ( Balaenoptera musculus intermedia ) are the largest and formerly most abundant blue whale subspecies, but were hunted to near extinction last century. Estimated whaling mortality was unsustainable from 1928 to 1972 (except during 1942–1944), depleting them from 239,000 (95% interval 202,000–311,000) to a low of 360 (150–840) in 1973. Obtaining statistical evidence for subsequent increases has proved difficult due to their scarcity. We fitted Bayesian models to three sighting series (1968–2001), constraining maximum rates of increase to 12% per annum. These models indicated that Antarctic blue whales are increasing at a mean rate of 7.3% per annum (1.4%–11.6%). Informative priors based on blue whale biology (4.3%, SD = 1.9%) and a Bayesian hierarchical meta‐analysis of increase rates in other blue whale populations (−3%, SD = 11.6%), suggest plausible increase rates are lower (although the latter has wide intervals), but a meta‐analysis of other mysticetes obtains similar rates of increase (6.7%, SD = 4.0%). Possible biases affecting the input abundance estimates are discussed. Although Antarctic blue whales appear to have been increasing since Sovier illegal whaling ended in 1972, they still need to be protected‐their estimated 1996 population size, 1,700 (860–2,900), was just 0.7% (0.3%–1.3%) of the pre‐exploitation level. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Branch, Trevor A. Matsuoka, Koji Miyashita, Tomio |
spellingShingle |
Branch, Trevor A. Matsuoka, Koji Miyashita, Tomio EVIDENCE FOR INCREASES IN ANTARCTIC BLUE WHALES BASED ON BAYESIAN MODELLING |
author_facet |
Branch, Trevor A. Matsuoka, Koji Miyashita, Tomio |
author_sort |
Branch, Trevor A. |
title |
EVIDENCE FOR INCREASES IN ANTARCTIC BLUE WHALES BASED ON BAYESIAN MODELLING |
title_short |
EVIDENCE FOR INCREASES IN ANTARCTIC BLUE WHALES BASED ON BAYESIAN MODELLING |
title_full |
EVIDENCE FOR INCREASES IN ANTARCTIC BLUE WHALES BASED ON BAYESIAN MODELLING |
title_fullStr |
EVIDENCE FOR INCREASES IN ANTARCTIC BLUE WHALES BASED ON BAYESIAN MODELLING |
title_full_unstemmed |
EVIDENCE FOR INCREASES IN ANTARCTIC BLUE WHALES BASED ON BAYESIAN MODELLING |
title_sort |
evidence for increases in antarctic blue whales based on bayesian modelling |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2004.tb01190.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1748-7692.2004.tb01190.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2004.tb01190.x |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Balaenoptera musculus Blue whale |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Balaenoptera musculus Blue whale |
op_source |
Marine Mammal Science volume 20, issue 4, page 726-754 ISSN 0824-0469 1748-7692 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2004.tb01190.x |
container_title |
Marine Mammal Science |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
726 |
op_container_end_page |
754 |
_version_ |
1809816438167306240 |