Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay?
Climate change driven advances in the date of sea ice breakup will increasingly lead to a loss of spring polar bear foraging opportunities on ringed seal pups creating a phenological trophic ‘mismatch’. However, the same shift will lead to a new ‘match’ between polar bears and ground nesting birds....
Published in: | Oikos |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2010
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1600-0706.2010.18837.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x |
id |
crwiley:10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x 2024-04-28T08:11:45+00:00 Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay? Rockwell, Robert F. Gormezano, Linda J. Koons, David N. 2010 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1600-0706.2010.18837.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Oikos volume 120, issue 5, page 696-709 ISSN 0030-1299 1600-0706 Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics journal-article 2010 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x 2024-04-02T08:45:39Z Climate change driven advances in the date of sea ice breakup will increasingly lead to a loss of spring polar bear foraging opportunities on ringed seal pups creating a phenological trophic ‘mismatch’. However, the same shift will lead to a new ‘match’ between polar bears and ground nesting birds. This new match will be especially prevalent along the Cape Churchill Peninsula of western Hudson Bay where both polar bears and nesting snow geese are abundant. Easily foraged goose eggs will provide at least some of the earlier arriving polar bears with compensation for the energy deficit accrued through lost seal hunting opportunities. We examine the potential impact of changes in the extent and pattern of polar bear egg predation on snow goose abundance using projection models that account not only for increases in the temporal overlap of the two species but also for autocorrelation and stochasticity in the processes underlying polar bear onshore arrival and snow goose incubation. Egg predation will reduce reproductive output of the nesting lesser snow geese and, under all but trivial rates, will lead to a reduction in the size of their nesting population on the Cape Churchill Peninsula. Stochasticity associated with the asymmetrical advances in polar bear onshore arrival and the snow goose incubation period will lead to periodic mismatches in their overlap. These, in turn, will allow snow goose abundance to increase periodically. Climate driven changes in trophic matches and mismatches may reduce snow goose numbers but will not eliminate this over‐abundant species that poses a threat to Arctic landscapes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Hudson Bay ringed seal Sea ice Wiley Online Library Oikos 120 5 696 709 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
spellingShingle |
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Rockwell, Robert F. Gormezano, Linda J. Koons, David N. Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay? |
topic_facet |
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
description |
Climate change driven advances in the date of sea ice breakup will increasingly lead to a loss of spring polar bear foraging opportunities on ringed seal pups creating a phenological trophic ‘mismatch’. However, the same shift will lead to a new ‘match’ between polar bears and ground nesting birds. This new match will be especially prevalent along the Cape Churchill Peninsula of western Hudson Bay where both polar bears and nesting snow geese are abundant. Easily foraged goose eggs will provide at least some of the earlier arriving polar bears with compensation for the energy deficit accrued through lost seal hunting opportunities. We examine the potential impact of changes in the extent and pattern of polar bear egg predation on snow goose abundance using projection models that account not only for increases in the temporal overlap of the two species but also for autocorrelation and stochasticity in the processes underlying polar bear onshore arrival and snow goose incubation. Egg predation will reduce reproductive output of the nesting lesser snow geese and, under all but trivial rates, will lead to a reduction in the size of their nesting population on the Cape Churchill Peninsula. Stochasticity associated with the asymmetrical advances in polar bear onshore arrival and the snow goose incubation period will lead to periodic mismatches in their overlap. These, in turn, will allow snow goose abundance to increase periodically. Climate driven changes in trophic matches and mismatches may reduce snow goose numbers but will not eliminate this over‐abundant species that poses a threat to Arctic landscapes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rockwell, Robert F. Gormezano, Linda J. Koons, David N. |
author_facet |
Rockwell, Robert F. Gormezano, Linda J. Koons, David N. |
author_sort |
Rockwell, Robert F. |
title |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay? |
title_short |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay? |
title_full |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay? |
title_fullStr |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay? |
title_sort |
trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western hudson bay? |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1600-0706.2010.18837.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Hudson Bay ringed seal Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Hudson Bay ringed seal Sea ice |
op_source |
Oikos volume 120, issue 5, page 696-709 ISSN 0030-1299 1600-0706 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18837.x |
container_title |
Oikos |
container_volume |
120 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
696 |
op_container_end_page |
709 |
_version_ |
1797578995736248320 |