Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year‐class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska
ABSTRACT NOAA's Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) contributes information to help forecast year‐class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma ) in the Gulf of Alaska. Quantitative estimates of recruitment are obtained from models of stock assessment and stock p...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x |
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crwiley:10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x 2024-06-02T08:15:15+00:00 Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year‐class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska MEGREY, BERNARD A. HOLLOWED, ANNE B. HARE, STEVEN R. MACKLIN, S. ALLEN STABENO, PHYLLIS J. 1996 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Fisheries Oceanography volume 5, issue s1, page 189-203 ISSN 1054-6006 1365-2419 journal-article 1996 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x 2024-05-03T10:39:20Z ABSTRACT NOAA's Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) contributes information to help forecast year‐class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma ) in the Gulf of Alaska. Quantitative estimates of recruitment are obtained from models of stock assessment and stock projection employing information supplied by FOCI. To generate its information, FOCI convenes specialists in marine biology, physical and fisheries oceanography, meteorology, and statistics to assemble and analyse relevant biological and physical time series with respect to recruitment and processes hypothesized to influence fish survival. Statistical methods encompass linear and nonlinear regression, stochastic simulation modelling, transfer function time series modelling, and tree‐modelling regression. The current database consists of 31 years of data, and analyses have identified factors that affect ocean stratification and circulation during spring and summer of the fish's birth year as being important to recruitment. A conceptual model of the recruitment process serves as the framework for a recruitment forecast scheme. A stochastic mathematical simulation model of the conceptual model produces similarities between simulated and observed recruitment time series. FOCI has successfully forecast recruitment observed over the past several years. Article in Journal/Newspaper Theragra chalcogramma Alaska Wiley Online Library Gulf of Alaska Fisheries Oceanography 5 s1 189 203 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT NOAA's Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) contributes information to help forecast year‐class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma ) in the Gulf of Alaska. Quantitative estimates of recruitment are obtained from models of stock assessment and stock projection employing information supplied by FOCI. To generate its information, FOCI convenes specialists in marine biology, physical and fisheries oceanography, meteorology, and statistics to assemble and analyse relevant biological and physical time series with respect to recruitment and processes hypothesized to influence fish survival. Statistical methods encompass linear and nonlinear regression, stochastic simulation modelling, transfer function time series modelling, and tree‐modelling regression. The current database consists of 31 years of data, and analyses have identified factors that affect ocean stratification and circulation during spring and summer of the fish's birth year as being important to recruitment. A conceptual model of the recruitment process serves as the framework for a recruitment forecast scheme. A stochastic mathematical simulation model of the conceptual model produces similarities between simulated and observed recruitment time series. FOCI has successfully forecast recruitment observed over the past several years. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
MEGREY, BERNARD A. HOLLOWED, ANNE B. HARE, STEVEN R. MACKLIN, S. ALLEN STABENO, PHYLLIS J. |
spellingShingle |
MEGREY, BERNARD A. HOLLOWED, ANNE B. HARE, STEVEN R. MACKLIN, S. ALLEN STABENO, PHYLLIS J. Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year‐class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska |
author_facet |
MEGREY, BERNARD A. HOLLOWED, ANNE B. HARE, STEVEN R. MACKLIN, S. ALLEN STABENO, PHYLLIS J. |
author_sort |
MEGREY, BERNARD A. |
title |
Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year‐class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska |
title_short |
Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year‐class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska |
title_full |
Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year‐class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska |
title_fullStr |
Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year‐class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year‐class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska |
title_sort |
contributions of foci research to forecasts of year‐class strength of walleye pollock in shelikof strait, alaska |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
1996 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fj.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x |
geographic |
Gulf of Alaska |
geographic_facet |
Gulf of Alaska |
genre |
Theragra chalcogramma Alaska |
genre_facet |
Theragra chalcogramma Alaska |
op_source |
Fisheries Oceanography volume 5, issue s1, page 189-203 ISSN 1054-6006 1365-2419 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00092.x |
container_title |
Fisheries Oceanography |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
s1 |
container_start_page |
189 |
op_container_end_page |
203 |
_version_ |
1800739355636006912 |