Alternative tree‐cover states of the boreal ecosystem: A conceptual model

• Published in: Global Ecology and Biogeography
• Main Authors: Abis, Beniamino, Brovkin, Victor
• Other Authors: Poulter, Benjamin, International Max Planck Research School for Earth System Modelling
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2019
• Subjects: permafrost
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12880; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgeb.12880; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/geb.12880; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/geb.12880

Abstract Aim Previous analyses of remotely sensed data detected the multimodality of the tree‐cover distribution of the boreal forest, and identified areas with potentially alternative tree‐cover states. This paper aims at investigating the causes of multimodality and multistability of the boreal forest, their influence on the asymmetric tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America, and whether multistability could be associated with recent greening trends in leaf area index (LAI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Location Eurasian and North American boreal forests. Time period 2000–2010. Major taxa studied Boreal forest plant functional types. Methods We employ a conceptual model based on tree species competition to simulate the sensitivity of tree cover to stochastic disturbances and to changes in environmental factors. We include different plant functional types based on survival adaptations, and force the model with remotely sensed environmental data. We analyse the model as a dynamical system. We use metrics from statistics and information theory to compare the detection of alternative tree‐cover states and greening trends in LAI and NDVI. Results We find that multimodality and multistability can emerge through competition between different plant functional types. Additionally, our model is able to reproduce the asymmetry in tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America. Moreover, changes in permafrost distribution can be associated with phenomenological bifurcation points of the model. Finally, we find that the detection of multistable areas is not affected by recent vegetation trends, whereas shifts between alternative states could have affected the greening trends. Main conclusions Tree‐cover multistability in the boreal region can emerge through competition between species subject to periodic disturbances. Changes in permafrost thaw and distribution could be responsible for the asymmetry in tree species distribution between North America and Eurasia. Climate ...