Extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective
Abstract Aim To estimate the magnitude of delayed relative to imminent extinctions and to assess the importance of delay as a potential source of error in forecasts of extinction. To formulate a simple mechanistic model using neutral theory that links extinction debt with the species–area relationsh...
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crwiley:10.1111/geb.12098 2024-06-02T08:03:47+00:00 Extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective Halley, John M. Sgardeli, Vasiliki Triantis, Kostas A. 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12098 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgeb.12098 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/geb.12098 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Ecology and Biogeography volume 23, issue 1, page 113-123 ISSN 1466-822X 1466-8238 journal-article 2013 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12098 2024-05-03T10:52:18Z Abstract Aim To estimate the magnitude of delayed relative to imminent extinctions and to assess the importance of delay as a potential source of error in forecasts of extinction. To formulate a simple mechanistic model using neutral theory that links extinction debt with the species–area relationship ( SAR ). Location World‐wide. Methods We use the neutral model of biodiversity to describe how a community subject to immigration responds to an insular contraction. We investigate the species richness at different times after the habitat‐loss event. We compare this with observed species losses in avian studies. Results From the model, two SAR s emerge: one with a shallow slope for a habitat area before habitat loss and another with a steeper slope for the habitats that remain after habitat loss. From these curves, the first predicts imminent extinctions while the second predicts total extinctions. The difference between the two curves gives the delayed extinctions, namely the number of species that are lost during the relaxation of the community to equilibrium. The model agrees well with observed relaxation rates in communities of birds. The lag times for relaxation are often very large, with half‐lives in the order of thousands of years for remnant areas above 5000 km 2 . In many parameter combinations explored, the majority of extinctions are delayed extinctions, and may exceed imminent extinctions by orders of magnitude. Main conclusions Extinction debt is a major reason for failures to observe extinctions following habitat loss. Our modelling approach supports the view that a significant proportion of extinctions are delayed, so that the predictions of SAR s (as currently applied) are liable to underestimate total extinctions. SAR s are a valuable instrument for conservation but must be used with caution. Article in Journal/Newspaper Avian Studies Wiley Online Library Global Ecology and Biogeography 23 1 113 123 |
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English |
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Abstract Aim To estimate the magnitude of delayed relative to imminent extinctions and to assess the importance of delay as a potential source of error in forecasts of extinction. To formulate a simple mechanistic model using neutral theory that links extinction debt with the species–area relationship ( SAR ). Location World‐wide. Methods We use the neutral model of biodiversity to describe how a community subject to immigration responds to an insular contraction. We investigate the species richness at different times after the habitat‐loss event. We compare this with observed species losses in avian studies. Results From the model, two SAR s emerge: one with a shallow slope for a habitat area before habitat loss and another with a steeper slope for the habitats that remain after habitat loss. From these curves, the first predicts imminent extinctions while the second predicts total extinctions. The difference between the two curves gives the delayed extinctions, namely the number of species that are lost during the relaxation of the community to equilibrium. The model agrees well with observed relaxation rates in communities of birds. The lag times for relaxation are often very large, with half‐lives in the order of thousands of years for remnant areas above 5000 km 2 . In many parameter combinations explored, the majority of extinctions are delayed extinctions, and may exceed imminent extinctions by orders of magnitude. Main conclusions Extinction debt is a major reason for failures to observe extinctions following habitat loss. Our modelling approach supports the view that a significant proportion of extinctions are delayed, so that the predictions of SAR s (as currently applied) are liable to underestimate total extinctions. SAR s are a valuable instrument for conservation but must be used with caution. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Halley, John M. Sgardeli, Vasiliki Triantis, Kostas A. |
spellingShingle |
Halley, John M. Sgardeli, Vasiliki Triantis, Kostas A. Extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective |
author_facet |
Halley, John M. Sgardeli, Vasiliki Triantis, Kostas A. |
author_sort |
Halley, John M. |
title |
Extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective |
title_short |
Extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective |
title_full |
Extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective |
title_fullStr |
Extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective |
title_sort |
extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12098 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgeb.12098 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/geb.12098 |
genre |
Avian Studies |
genre_facet |
Avian Studies |
op_source |
Global Ecology and Biogeography volume 23, issue 1, page 113-123 ISSN 1466-822X 1466-8238 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12098 |
container_title |
Global Ecology and Biogeography |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
113 |
op_container_end_page |
123 |
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1800748401393926144 |