Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene– Anthropocene transition

• Published in: Global Ecology and Biogeography
• Main Authors: Benito‐Garzón, Marta, Leadley, Paul W., Fernández‐Manjarrés, Juan F.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2013
• Subjects: Tundra
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12097; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgeb.12097; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/geb.12097

Abstract Aim To analyse global patterns of climate during the mid‐Holocene and conduct comparisons with pre‐industrial and projected future climates. In particular, to assess the exposure of terrestrial biomes and ecoregions to climate‐related risks during the H olocene– A nthropocene transition starting at the pre‐industrial period. Location Terrestrial ecosystems of the E arth. Methods We calculated long‐term climate differences (anomalies) between the mid‐ H olocene (6 ka cal bp , mH ), pre‐industrial conditions and projections for 2100 (middle‐strength A1B scenario) using six global circulation models available for all periods. Climate differences were synthesized with multivariate statistics and average principal component loadings of temperature and precipitation differences (an estimate of climate‐related risks) were calculated on 14 biomes and 766 ecoregions. Results Our results suggest that most of the E arth's biomes will probably undergo changes beyond the mH recorded levels of community turnover and range shifts because the magnitude of climate anomalies expected in the future are greater than observed during the mH . A few biomes, like the remnants of N orth A merican and E uro‐ A sian prairies, may experience only slightly greater degrees of climate change in the future as compared with the mH . In addition to recent studies that have identified equatorial regions as the most sensitive to future climate change, we find that boreal forest, tundra and vegetation of the E quatorial A ndes could be at greatest risk, since these regions will be exposed to future climates that are well outside natural climate variation during the H olocene. Conclusions The H olocene– A nthropocene climate transition, even for a middle‐strength future climate change scenario, appears to be of greater magnitude and different from that between the mH and the pre‐industrial period. As a consequence, community‐ and biome‐level changes due to of expected climate change may be different in the future from those observed during ...