Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America
Abstract Global climate change has been identified as a potential driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions, there are critical data gaps that make it difficult to assess how communities are responding to climate change. Poleward regions are of particular interest because warming is mo...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17205 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.17205 |
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.17205 2024-06-02T08:02:25+00:00 Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America Shirey, Vaughn Neupane, Naresh Guralnick, Robert Ries, Leslie National Science Foundation 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17205 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.17205 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 30, issue 2 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2024 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17205 2024-05-06T07:00:56Z Abstract Global climate change has been identified as a potential driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions, there are critical data gaps that make it difficult to assess how communities are responding to climate change. Poleward regions are of particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity data are most sparse. Building on recent advances in occupancy modeling of presence‐only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970–2019) of butterfly occupancy trends in response to rising minimum temperatures in one of the most under‐sampled regions of North America. Among 90 modeled species, we found that cold‐adapted species are far more often in decline compared with their warm‐adapted, more southernly distributed counterparts. Furthermore, in a post hoc analysis using species' traits, we find that species' range‐wide average annual temperature is the only consistent predictor of occupancy changes. Species with warmer ranges were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. This trend results in the majority of butterflies increasing in occupancy probability over the last 50 years. Our results provide the first look at macroscale butterfly biodiversity shifts in high‐latitude North America. These results highlight the potential of leveraging the wealth of presence‐only data, the most abundant source of biodiversity data, for inferring changes in species distributions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Wiley Online Library Arctic Global Change Biology 30 2 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
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Abstract Global climate change has been identified as a potential driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions, there are critical data gaps that make it difficult to assess how communities are responding to climate change. Poleward regions are of particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity data are most sparse. Building on recent advances in occupancy modeling of presence‐only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970–2019) of butterfly occupancy trends in response to rising minimum temperatures in one of the most under‐sampled regions of North America. Among 90 modeled species, we found that cold‐adapted species are far more often in decline compared with their warm‐adapted, more southernly distributed counterparts. Furthermore, in a post hoc analysis using species' traits, we find that species' range‐wide average annual temperature is the only consistent predictor of occupancy changes. Species with warmer ranges were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. This trend results in the majority of butterflies increasing in occupancy probability over the last 50 years. Our results provide the first look at macroscale butterfly biodiversity shifts in high‐latitude North America. These results highlight the potential of leveraging the wealth of presence‐only data, the most abundant source of biodiversity data, for inferring changes in species distributions. |
author2 |
National Science Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Shirey, Vaughn Neupane, Naresh Guralnick, Robert Ries, Leslie |
spellingShingle |
Shirey, Vaughn Neupane, Naresh Guralnick, Robert Ries, Leslie Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America |
author_facet |
Shirey, Vaughn Neupane, Naresh Guralnick, Robert Ries, Leslie |
author_sort |
Shirey, Vaughn |
title |
Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America |
title_short |
Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America |
title_full |
Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America |
title_fullStr |
Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America |
title_sort |
rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold‐adapted arctic and boreal butterflies in north america |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17205 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.17205 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 30, issue 2 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17205 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
2 |
_version_ |
1800746918183174144 |