Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration
Abstract Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Her...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16891 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.16891 |
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.16891 2024-06-02T08:00:37+00:00 Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration Morten, Joanne M. Buchanan, Pearse J. Egevang, C. Glissenaar, Isolde A. Maxwell, Sara M. Parr, Nicole Screen, James A. Vigfúsdóttir, Freydís Vogt‐Vincent, Noam S. Williams, Daniel A. Williams, Ned C. Witt, Matthew J. Hawkes, Lucy A. Thurston, William Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung National Geographic Society Natural Environment Research Council Science and Technology Facilities Council 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16891 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.16891 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Global Change Biology volume 29, issue 19, page 5596-5614 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2023 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16891 2024-05-03T10:41:53Z Abstract Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st‐century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non‐breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End‐of‐century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi‐model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: ‘middle‐of‐the‐road’ and ‘fossil‐fuelled development’ scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a ‘fossil‐fuelled development’ scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s −1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end‐of‐century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming North Atlantic Sea ice Southern Ocean Wiley Online Library Arctic Indian Southern Ocean Global Change Biology 29 19 5596 5614 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Abstract Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st‐century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non‐breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End‐of‐century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi‐model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: ‘middle‐of‐the‐road’ and ‘fossil‐fuelled development’ scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a ‘fossil‐fuelled development’ scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s −1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end‐of‐century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species. |
author2 |
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung National Geographic Society Natural Environment Research Council Science and Technology Facilities Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Morten, Joanne M. Buchanan, Pearse J. Egevang, C. Glissenaar, Isolde A. Maxwell, Sara M. Parr, Nicole Screen, James A. Vigfúsdóttir, Freydís Vogt‐Vincent, Noam S. Williams, Daniel A. Williams, Ned C. Witt, Matthew J. Hawkes, Lucy A. Thurston, William |
spellingShingle |
Morten, Joanne M. Buchanan, Pearse J. Egevang, C. Glissenaar, Isolde A. Maxwell, Sara M. Parr, Nicole Screen, James A. Vigfúsdóttir, Freydís Vogt‐Vincent, Noam S. Williams, Daniel A. Williams, Ned C. Witt, Matthew J. Hawkes, Lucy A. Thurston, William Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration |
author_facet |
Morten, Joanne M. Buchanan, Pearse J. Egevang, C. Glissenaar, Isolde A. Maxwell, Sara M. Parr, Nicole Screen, James A. Vigfúsdóttir, Freydís Vogt‐Vincent, Noam S. Williams, Daniel A. Williams, Ned C. Witt, Matthew J. Hawkes, Lucy A. Thurston, William |
author_sort |
Morten, Joanne M. |
title |
Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration |
title_short |
Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration |
title_full |
Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration |
title_fullStr |
Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration |
title_sort |
global warming and arctic terns: estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16891 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.16891 |
geographic |
Arctic Indian Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Indian Southern Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming North Atlantic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming North Atlantic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 29, issue 19, page 5596-5614 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16891 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
19 |
container_start_page |
5596 |
op_container_end_page |
5614 |
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1800744685780598784 |