Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits in Asia
Abstract Habitat loss and shifts associated with climate change threaten global biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes. With the disappearance of the tundra breeding habitats, migratory shorebirds that breed at these high latitudes are likely to be even more vulner...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16308 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.16308 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.16308 |
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.16308 2024-09-15T18:39:51+00:00 Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits in Asia Zhu, Bing‐Run Verhoeven, Mo A. Velasco, Nicolas Sanchez‐Aguilar, Lisa Zhang, Zhengwang Piersma, Theunis National Natural Science Foundation of China 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16308 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.16308 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.16308 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Global Change Biology volume 28, issue 18, page 5416-5426 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16308 2024-08-22T04:17:51Z Abstract Habitat loss and shifts associated with climate change threaten global biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes. With the disappearance of the tundra breeding habitats, migratory shorebirds that breed at these high latitudes are likely to be even more vulnerable to climate change than those in temperate regions. We examined this idea using new distributional information on two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits Limosa limosa in Asia: the northerly, bog‐breeding L. l. bohaii and the more southerly, steppe‐breeding L. l. melanuroides . Based on breeding locations of tagged and molecularly assayed birds, we modelled the current breeding distributions of the two subspecies with species distribution models, tested those models for robustness and then used them to predict climatically suitable breeding ranges in 2070 according to bioclimatic variables and different climate change scenarios. Our models were robust and showed that climate change is expected to push bohaii into the northern rim of the Eurasian continent. Melanuroides is also expected to shift northward, stopping in the Yablonovyy and Stanovoy Ranges, and breeding elevation is expected to increase. Climatically suitable breeding habitat ranges would shrink to 16% and 11% of the currently estimated ranges of bohaii and melanuroides , respectively. Overall, this study provides the first predictions for the future distributions of two little‐known Black‐tailed Godwit subspecies and highlights the importance of factoring in shifts in bird distribution when designing climate‐proof conservation strategies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa Wiley Online Library Global Change Biology 28 18 5416 5426 |
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English |
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Abstract Habitat loss and shifts associated with climate change threaten global biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes. With the disappearance of the tundra breeding habitats, migratory shorebirds that breed at these high latitudes are likely to be even more vulnerable to climate change than those in temperate regions. We examined this idea using new distributional information on two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits Limosa limosa in Asia: the northerly, bog‐breeding L. l. bohaii and the more southerly, steppe‐breeding L. l. melanuroides . Based on breeding locations of tagged and molecularly assayed birds, we modelled the current breeding distributions of the two subspecies with species distribution models, tested those models for robustness and then used them to predict climatically suitable breeding ranges in 2070 according to bioclimatic variables and different climate change scenarios. Our models were robust and showed that climate change is expected to push bohaii into the northern rim of the Eurasian continent. Melanuroides is also expected to shift northward, stopping in the Yablonovyy and Stanovoy Ranges, and breeding elevation is expected to increase. Climatically suitable breeding habitat ranges would shrink to 16% and 11% of the currently estimated ranges of bohaii and melanuroides , respectively. Overall, this study provides the first predictions for the future distributions of two little‐known Black‐tailed Godwit subspecies and highlights the importance of factoring in shifts in bird distribution when designing climate‐proof conservation strategies. |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhu, Bing‐Run Verhoeven, Mo A. Velasco, Nicolas Sanchez‐Aguilar, Lisa Zhang, Zhengwang Piersma, Theunis |
spellingShingle |
Zhu, Bing‐Run Verhoeven, Mo A. Velasco, Nicolas Sanchez‐Aguilar, Lisa Zhang, Zhengwang Piersma, Theunis Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits in Asia |
author_facet |
Zhu, Bing‐Run Verhoeven, Mo A. Velasco, Nicolas Sanchez‐Aguilar, Lisa Zhang, Zhengwang Piersma, Theunis |
author_sort |
Zhu, Bing‐Run |
title |
Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits in Asia |
title_short |
Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits in Asia |
title_full |
Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits in Asia |
title_fullStr |
Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits in Asia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black‐tailed Godwits in Asia |
title_sort |
current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of black‐tailed godwits in asia |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16308 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.16308 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.16308 |
genre |
Tundra black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa |
genre_facet |
Tundra black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 28, issue 18, page 5416-5426 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16308 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
18 |
container_start_page |
5416 |
op_container_end_page |
5426 |
_version_ |
1810484188362571776 |