Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming
Abstract Natural systems can undergo critical transitions, leading to substantial socioeconomic and ecological outcomes. “Ecological resilience” has been proposed to describe the capacity of natural systems to absorb external perturbation and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15815 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15815 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.15815 |
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.15815 2024-09-09T20:10:53+00:00 Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming Ma, Shuyang Liu, Dan Tian, Yongjun Fu, Caihong Li, Jianchao Ju, Peilong Sun, Peng Ye, Zhenjiang Liu, Yang Watanabe, Yoshiro National Natural Science Foundation of China 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15815 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15815 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.15815 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 27, issue 20, page 5310-5328 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15815 2024-08-06T04:13:15Z Abstract Natural systems can undergo critical transitions, leading to substantial socioeconomic and ecological outcomes. “Ecological resilience” has been proposed to describe the capacity of natural systems to absorb external perturbation and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. However, the mere application of ecological resilience in theoretical research and the lack of quantitative approaches present considerable obstacles for predicting critical transitions and understanding their mechanisms. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) in the Northwestern Pacific are characterized by great biodiversity and productivity, as well as remarkable warming in recent decades. However, no information is available on the critical transitions and ecological resilience of LMEs in response to warming. Therefore, we applied an integrated resilience assessment framework to fisheries catch data from seven LMEs covering a wide range of regions, from tropical to subarctic, in the Northwestern Pacific to identify critical transitions, assess ecological resilience, and reconstruct folded stability landscapes, with a specific focus on the effects of warming. The results provide evidence of the occurrence of critical transitions, with fold bifurcation and hysteresis in response to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the seven LMEs. In addition, these LMEs show similarities and synchronies in structure variations and critical transitions forced by warming. Both dramatic increases in SST and small fluctuations at the corresponding thresholds may trigger critical transitions. Ecological resilience decreases when approaching the tipping points and is repainted as the LMEs shift to alternative stable states with different resilient dynamics. Folded stability landscapes indicate that the responses of LMEs to warming are discontinuous, which may be caused by the reorganization of LMEs as their sensitivity to warming changes. Our study clarifies the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Subarctic Wiley Online Library Pacific Global Change Biology 27 20 5310 5328 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
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Abstract Natural systems can undergo critical transitions, leading to substantial socioeconomic and ecological outcomes. “Ecological resilience” has been proposed to describe the capacity of natural systems to absorb external perturbation and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. However, the mere application of ecological resilience in theoretical research and the lack of quantitative approaches present considerable obstacles for predicting critical transitions and understanding their mechanisms. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) in the Northwestern Pacific are characterized by great biodiversity and productivity, as well as remarkable warming in recent decades. However, no information is available on the critical transitions and ecological resilience of LMEs in response to warming. Therefore, we applied an integrated resilience assessment framework to fisheries catch data from seven LMEs covering a wide range of regions, from tropical to subarctic, in the Northwestern Pacific to identify critical transitions, assess ecological resilience, and reconstruct folded stability landscapes, with a specific focus on the effects of warming. The results provide evidence of the occurrence of critical transitions, with fold bifurcation and hysteresis in response to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the seven LMEs. In addition, these LMEs show similarities and synchronies in structure variations and critical transitions forced by warming. Both dramatic increases in SST and small fluctuations at the corresponding thresholds may trigger critical transitions. Ecological resilience decreases when approaching the tipping points and is repainted as the LMEs shift to alternative stable states with different resilient dynamics. Folded stability landscapes indicate that the responses of LMEs to warming are discontinuous, which may be caused by the reorganization of LMEs as their sensitivity to warming changes. Our study clarifies the ... |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ma, Shuyang Liu, Dan Tian, Yongjun Fu, Caihong Li, Jianchao Ju, Peilong Sun, Peng Ye, Zhenjiang Liu, Yang Watanabe, Yoshiro |
spellingShingle |
Ma, Shuyang Liu, Dan Tian, Yongjun Fu, Caihong Li, Jianchao Ju, Peilong Sun, Peng Ye, Zhenjiang Liu, Yang Watanabe, Yoshiro Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming |
author_facet |
Ma, Shuyang Liu, Dan Tian, Yongjun Fu, Caihong Li, Jianchao Ju, Peilong Sun, Peng Ye, Zhenjiang Liu, Yang Watanabe, Yoshiro |
author_sort |
Ma, Shuyang |
title |
Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming |
title_short |
Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming |
title_full |
Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming |
title_fullStr |
Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming |
title_sort |
critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the northwestern pacific in response to global warming |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15815 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15815 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.15815 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Subarctic |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 27, issue 20, page 5310-5328 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15815 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
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27 |
container_issue |
20 |
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5310 |
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5328 |
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1809945319470792704 |