Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics
Abstract Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with pot...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15484 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.15484 |
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.15484 2024-04-28T08:09:44+00:00 Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics Desforges, Jean‐Pierre Marques, Gonçalo M. Beumer, Larissa T. Chimienti, Marianna Hansen, Lars H. Pedersen, Stine Højlund Schmidt, Niels M. van Beest, Floris M. Aarhus Universitets Forskningsfond 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15484 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.15484 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 27, issue 9, page 1755-1771 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 2024-04-05T07:39:06Z Abstract Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially devastating impacts on resident populations. Here, we make use of a parameterized full life cycle, individual‐based energy budget model for wild muskoxen, coupling year‐round environmental data with detailed ontogenic metabolic physiology. We show how winter food accessibility, summer food availability, and density dependence drive seasonal dynamics of energy storage and thus life history and population dynamics. Winter forage accessibility defined by snow depth, more than summer forage availability, was the primary determinant of muskox population dynamics through impacts on calf recruitment and longer term carryover effects of maternal investment. Simulations of various seasonal snow depth and plant biomass and quality profiles revealed that timing of and improved/limited winter forage accessibility had marked influence on calf recruitment (±10–80%). Impacts on recruitment were the cumulative result of condition‐driven reproductive performance at multiple time points across the reproductive period (ovulation to calf weaning) as a trade‐off between survival and reproduction. Seasonal and generational condition effects of snow‐rich winters interacted with age structure and density to cause pronounced long‐term consequences on population growth and structure, with predicted population recovery times from even moderate disturbances of 10 years or more. Our results show how alteration in winter forage accessibility, mediated by snow depth, impacts the dynamics of northern herbivore populations. Further, we present here a mechanistic and state‐based model framework to assess future scenarios of environmental change, such as increased or decreased snowfall or plant biomass and quality to impact winter and summer ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic muskox Wiley Online Library Global Change Biology 27 9 1755 1771 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
spellingShingle |
General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change Desforges, Jean‐Pierre Marques, Gonçalo M. Beumer, Larissa T. Chimienti, Marianna Hansen, Lars H. Pedersen, Stine Højlund Schmidt, Niels M. van Beest, Floris M. Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
topic_facet |
General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
description |
Abstract Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially devastating impacts on resident populations. Here, we make use of a parameterized full life cycle, individual‐based energy budget model for wild muskoxen, coupling year‐round environmental data with detailed ontogenic metabolic physiology. We show how winter food accessibility, summer food availability, and density dependence drive seasonal dynamics of energy storage and thus life history and population dynamics. Winter forage accessibility defined by snow depth, more than summer forage availability, was the primary determinant of muskox population dynamics through impacts on calf recruitment and longer term carryover effects of maternal investment. Simulations of various seasonal snow depth and plant biomass and quality profiles revealed that timing of and improved/limited winter forage accessibility had marked influence on calf recruitment (±10–80%). Impacts on recruitment were the cumulative result of condition‐driven reproductive performance at multiple time points across the reproductive period (ovulation to calf weaning) as a trade‐off between survival and reproduction. Seasonal and generational condition effects of snow‐rich winters interacted with age structure and density to cause pronounced long‐term consequences on population growth and structure, with predicted population recovery times from even moderate disturbances of 10 years or more. Our results show how alteration in winter forage accessibility, mediated by snow depth, impacts the dynamics of northern herbivore populations. Further, we present here a mechanistic and state‐based model framework to assess future scenarios of environmental change, such as increased or decreased snowfall or plant biomass and quality to impact winter and summer ... |
author2 |
Aarhus Universitets Forskningsfond |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Desforges, Jean‐Pierre Marques, Gonçalo M. Beumer, Larissa T. Chimienti, Marianna Hansen, Lars H. Pedersen, Stine Højlund Schmidt, Niels M. van Beest, Floris M. |
author_facet |
Desforges, Jean‐Pierre Marques, Gonçalo M. Beumer, Larissa T. Chimienti, Marianna Hansen, Lars H. Pedersen, Stine Højlund Schmidt, Niels M. van Beest, Floris M. |
author_sort |
Desforges, Jean‐Pierre |
title |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_short |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_full |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_fullStr |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics |
title_sort |
environment and physiology shape arctic ungulate population dynamics |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15484 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.15484 |
genre |
Arctic muskox |
genre_facet |
Arctic muskox |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 27, issue 9, page 1755-1771 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15484 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
1755 |
op_container_end_page |
1771 |
_version_ |
1797577976419713024 |