Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis
Abstract Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range‐wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characteriz...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15085 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.15085 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15085 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.15085 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/gcb.15085 |
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.15085 2024-06-02T08:14:15+00:00 Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis Iles, David T. Lynch, Heather Ji, Rubao Barbraud, Christophe Delord, Karine Jenouvrier, Stephanie National Science Foundation Institut Polaire Français Paul Emile Victor Fondation BNP Paribas Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15085 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.15085 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15085 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.15085 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/gcb.15085 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 26, issue 7, page 3788-3798 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15085 2024-05-03T12:02:20Z Abstract Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range‐wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., “prevailing” environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year‐to‐year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year‐to‐year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short‐term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short‐ and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Wiley Online Library Global Change Biology 26 7 3788 3798 |
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English |
description |
Abstract Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range‐wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., “prevailing” environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year‐to‐year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year‐to‐year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short‐term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short‐ and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change. |
author2 |
National Science Foundation Institut Polaire Français Paul Emile Victor Fondation BNP Paribas Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Iles, David T. Lynch, Heather Ji, Rubao Barbraud, Christophe Delord, Karine Jenouvrier, Stephanie |
spellingShingle |
Iles, David T. Lynch, Heather Ji, Rubao Barbraud, Christophe Delord, Karine Jenouvrier, Stephanie Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis |
author_facet |
Iles, David T. Lynch, Heather Ji, Rubao Barbraud, Christophe Delord, Karine Jenouvrier, Stephanie |
author_sort |
Iles, David T. |
title |
Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis |
title_short |
Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis |
title_full |
Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis |
title_fullStr |
Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis |
title_sort |
sea ice predicts long‐term trends in adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15085 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.15085 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15085 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.15085 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/gcb.15085 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 26, issue 7, page 3788-3798 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15085 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
3788 |
op_container_end_page |
3798 |
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1800738014021812224 |