Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming
Abstract Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to cont...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.14773 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.14773 |
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.14773 2024-06-23T07:48:59+00:00 Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming Layton‐Matthews, Kate Hansen, Brage Bremset Grøtan, Vidar Fuglei, Eva Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Norges Forskningsråd Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Utenriksdepartementet Rijksuniversiteit Groningen 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.14773 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.14773 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Global Change Biology volume 26, issue 2, page 642-657 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 2024-05-31T08:15:19Z Abstract Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis , using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Fox Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard Wiley Online Library Arctic Norway Svalbard Global Change Biology 26 2 642 657 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis , using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. ... |
author2 |
Norges Forskningsråd Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Utenriksdepartementet Rijksuniversiteit Groningen |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Layton‐Matthews, Kate Hansen, Brage Bremset Grøtan, Vidar Fuglei, Eva Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. |
spellingShingle |
Layton‐Matthews, Kate Hansen, Brage Bremset Grøtan, Vidar Fuglei, Eva Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming |
author_facet |
Layton‐Matthews, Kate Hansen, Brage Bremset Grøtan, Vidar Fuglei, Eva Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. |
author_sort |
Layton‐Matthews, Kate |
title |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming |
title_short |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming |
title_full |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming |
title_fullStr |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming |
title_sort |
contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.14773 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.14773 |
geographic |
Arctic Norway Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Norway Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Fox Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Fox Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 26, issue 2, page 642-657 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
642 |
op_container_end_page |
657 |
_version_ |
1802639275322245120 |