Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra
Abstract The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has b...
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.14639 2024-06-23T07:49:50+00:00 Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra Assmann, Jakob J. Myers‐Smith, Isla H. Phillimore, Albert B. Bjorkman, Anne D. Ennos, Richard E. Prevéy, Janet S. Henry, Greg H. R. Schmidt, Niels M. Hollister, Robert D. Arctic Institute of North America National Science Foundation Government of Canada University of British Columbia Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Natural Environment Research Council 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.14639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.14639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/gcb.14639 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 25, issue 7, page 2258-2274 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14639 2024-05-31T08:15:34Z Abstract The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long‐term time series of spring leaf‐out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland Sea ice Tundra Alaska Wiley Online Library Arctic Canada Greenland Global Change Biology 25 7 2258 2274 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long‐term time series of spring leaf‐out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology. |
author2 |
Arctic Institute of North America National Science Foundation Government of Canada University of British Columbia Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Natural Environment Research Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Assmann, Jakob J. Myers‐Smith, Isla H. Phillimore, Albert B. Bjorkman, Anne D. Ennos, Richard E. Prevéy, Janet S. Henry, Greg H. R. Schmidt, Niels M. Hollister, Robert D. |
spellingShingle |
Assmann, Jakob J. Myers‐Smith, Isla H. Phillimore, Albert B. Bjorkman, Anne D. Ennos, Richard E. Prevéy, Janet S. Henry, Greg H. R. Schmidt, Niels M. Hollister, Robert D. Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra |
author_facet |
Assmann, Jakob J. Myers‐Smith, Isla H. Phillimore, Albert B. Bjorkman, Anne D. Ennos, Richard E. Prevéy, Janet S. Henry, Greg H. R. Schmidt, Niels M. Hollister, Robert D. |
author_sort |
Assmann, Jakob J. |
title |
Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra |
title_short |
Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra |
title_full |
Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra |
title_fullStr |
Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra |
title_full_unstemmed |
Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra |
title_sort |
local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal arctic tundra |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.14639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.14639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/gcb.14639 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Greenland Sea ice Tundra Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greenland Sea ice Tundra Alaska |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 25, issue 7, page 2258-2274 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14639 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2258 |
op_container_end_page |
2274 |
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1802640511174967296 |