Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean
Abstract Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to e...
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.13929 2024-06-23T07:50:45+00:00 Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean Meyer‐Gutbrod, Erin L. Greene, Charles H. National Defense Science and Engineering Fellowship Cornell's Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, through its Sustainable Biodiversity Fund 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13929 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13929 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13929 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 24, issue 1, page 455-464 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13929 2024-06-06T04:22:16Z Abstract Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate‐associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture‐recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale Wiley Online Library Arctic Global Change Biology 24 1 455 464 |
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English |
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Abstract Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate‐associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture‐recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species. |
author2 |
National Defense Science and Engineering Fellowship Cornell's Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, through its Sustainable Biodiversity Fund |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Meyer‐Gutbrod, Erin L. Greene, Charles H. |
spellingShingle |
Meyer‐Gutbrod, Erin L. Greene, Charles H. Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean |
author_facet |
Meyer‐Gutbrod, Erin L. Greene, Charles H. |
author_sort |
Meyer‐Gutbrod, Erin L. |
title |
Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean |
title_short |
Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean |
title_full |
Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean |
title_fullStr |
Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean |
title_sort |
uncertain recovery of the north atlantic right whale in a changing ocean |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13929 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13929 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13929 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 24, issue 1, page 455-464 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13929 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
455 |
op_container_end_page |
464 |
_version_ |
1802641666388000768 |