Tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change
Abstract Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming‐induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In this study, we investigated the...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13780 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13780 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13780 |
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.13780 2024-10-06T13:53:25+00:00 Tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change Tei, Shunsuke Sugimoto, Atsuko Yonenobu, Hitoshi Matsuura, Yojiro Osawa, Akira Sato, Hisashi Fujinuma, Junichi Maximov, Trofim Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13780 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13780 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13780 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 23, issue 12, page 5179-5188 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13780 2024-09-11T04:13:04Z Abstract Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming‐induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of forest productivity to climate change using ring width indices (RWI) from a tree‐ring width dataset accessed from the International Tree‐Ring Data Bank and gridded climate datasets from the Climate Research Unit. A negative relationship of RWI with summer temperature and recent reductions in RWI were typically observed in continental dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, southern Europe, and the southern part of eastern Siberia. We then developed a multiple regression model with regional meteorological parameters to predict RWI, and then applied to these models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty‐first‐century climate change (RCP8.5 scenario). The projections showed a spatial variation and future continuous reduction in tree growth in those continental dry regions. The spatial variation, however, could not be reproduced by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The DGVM projected a generally positive trend in future tree growth all over the circumboreal region. These results indicate that DGVMs may overestimate future wood net primary productivity (NPP) in continental dry regions such as these; this seems to be common feature of current DGVMs. DGVMs should be able to express the negative effect of warming on tree growth, so that they simulate the observed recent reduction in tree growth in continental dry regions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Alaska Siberia Wiley Online Library Canada Global Change Biology 23 12 5179 5188 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming‐induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of forest productivity to climate change using ring width indices (RWI) from a tree‐ring width dataset accessed from the International Tree‐Ring Data Bank and gridded climate datasets from the Climate Research Unit. A negative relationship of RWI with summer temperature and recent reductions in RWI were typically observed in continental dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, southern Europe, and the southern part of eastern Siberia. We then developed a multiple regression model with regional meteorological parameters to predict RWI, and then applied to these models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty‐first‐century climate change (RCP8.5 scenario). The projections showed a spatial variation and future continuous reduction in tree growth in those continental dry regions. The spatial variation, however, could not be reproduced by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The DGVM projected a generally positive trend in future tree growth all over the circumboreal region. These results indicate that DGVMs may overestimate future wood net primary productivity (NPP) in continental dry regions such as these; this seems to be common feature of current DGVMs. DGVMs should be able to express the negative effect of warming on tree growth, so that they simulate the observed recent reduction in tree growth in continental dry regions. |
author2 |
Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tei, Shunsuke Sugimoto, Atsuko Yonenobu, Hitoshi Matsuura, Yojiro Osawa, Akira Sato, Hisashi Fujinuma, Junichi Maximov, Trofim |
spellingShingle |
Tei, Shunsuke Sugimoto, Atsuko Yonenobu, Hitoshi Matsuura, Yojiro Osawa, Akira Sato, Hisashi Fujinuma, Junichi Maximov, Trofim Tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change |
author_facet |
Tei, Shunsuke Sugimoto, Atsuko Yonenobu, Hitoshi Matsuura, Yojiro Osawa, Akira Sato, Hisashi Fujinuma, Junichi Maximov, Trofim |
author_sort |
Tei, Shunsuke |
title |
Tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change |
title_short |
Tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change |
title_full |
Tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change |
title_sort |
tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13780 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13780 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13780 |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
Alaska Siberia |
genre_facet |
Alaska Siberia |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 23, issue 12, page 5179-5188 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13780 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5179 |
op_container_end_page |
5188 |
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1812182132643069952 |