Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins
Abstract Early‐life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juven...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13538 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13538 |
id |
crwiley:10.1111/gcb.13538 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1111/gcb.13538 2023-12-03T10:14:06+01:00 Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins Abadi, Fitsum Barbraud, Christophe Gimenez, Olivier Institut Polaire Français Paul Emile Victor 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13538 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13538 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 23, issue 3, page 1353-1359 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change journal-article 2016 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 2023-11-09T14:37:32Z Abstract Early‐life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins ( Aptenodytes forsteri ), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture–recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971–1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode ( SAM ), sea ice concentration ( SIC )] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period ( SAMR ) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large‐scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) Dumont d'Urville ENVELOPE(140.017,140.017,-66.667,-66.667) Dumont-d'Urville ENVELOPE(140.013,140.013,-66.667,-66.667) Global Change Biology 23 3 1353 1359 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
spellingShingle |
General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change Abadi, Fitsum Barbraud, Christophe Gimenez, Olivier Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
topic_facet |
General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
description |
Abstract Early‐life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins ( Aptenodytes forsteri ), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture–recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971–1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode ( SAM ), sea ice concentration ( SIC )] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period ( SAMR ) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large‐scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators. |
author2 |
Institut Polaire Français Paul Emile Victor |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abadi, Fitsum Barbraud, Christophe Gimenez, Olivier |
author_facet |
Abadi, Fitsum Barbraud, Christophe Gimenez, Olivier |
author_sort |
Abadi, Fitsum |
title |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_short |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_full |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_fullStr |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_sort |
integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13538 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13538 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(140.017,140.017,-66.667,-66.667) ENVELOPE(140.013,140.013,-66.667,-66.667) |
geographic |
Dumont d'Urville Dumont-d'Urville |
geographic_facet |
Dumont d'Urville Dumont-d'Urville |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 23, issue 3, page 1353-1359 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1353 |
op_container_end_page |
1359 |
_version_ |
1784261184240746496 |