Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore
Abstract The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn....
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.13435 2024-09-15T18:31:49+00:00 Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore Albon, Steve D. Irvine, R. Justin. Halvorsen, Odd Langvatn, Rolf Loe, Leif E. Ropstad, Erik Veiberg, Vebjørn van der Wal, René Bjørkvoll, Eirin M. Duff, Elizabeth I. Hansen, Brage B. Lee, Aline M. Tveraa, Torkild Stien, Audun Natural Environment Research Council Norges Forskningsråd 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13435 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13435 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.13435 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Global Change Biology volume 23, issue 4, page 1374-1389 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2016 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 2024-08-27T04:26:45Z Abstract The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus ) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Svalbard svalbard reindeer Tundra Wiley Online Library Global Change Biology 23 4 1374 1389 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus ) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council Norges Forskningsråd |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Albon, Steve D. Irvine, R. Justin. Halvorsen, Odd Langvatn, Rolf Loe, Leif E. Ropstad, Erik Veiberg, Vebjørn van der Wal, René Bjørkvoll, Eirin M. Duff, Elizabeth I. Hansen, Brage B. Lee, Aline M. Tveraa, Torkild Stien, Audun |
spellingShingle |
Albon, Steve D. Irvine, R. Justin. Halvorsen, Odd Langvatn, Rolf Loe, Leif E. Ropstad, Erik Veiberg, Vebjørn van der Wal, René Bjørkvoll, Eirin M. Duff, Elizabeth I. Hansen, Brage B. Lee, Aline M. Tveraa, Torkild Stien, Audun Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore |
author_facet |
Albon, Steve D. Irvine, R. Justin. Halvorsen, Odd Langvatn, Rolf Loe, Leif E. Ropstad, Erik Veiberg, Vebjørn van der Wal, René Bjørkvoll, Eirin M. Duff, Elizabeth I. Hansen, Brage B. Lee, Aline M. Tveraa, Torkild Stien, Audun |
author_sort |
Albon, Steve D. |
title |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore |
title_short |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore |
title_full |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore |
title_fullStr |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore |
title_sort |
contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited arctic herbivore |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13435 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13435 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/gcb.13435 |
genre |
Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Svalbard svalbard reindeer Tundra |
genre_facet |
Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Svalbard svalbard reindeer Tundra |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 23, issue 4, page 1374-1389 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1374 |
op_container_end_page |
1389 |
_version_ |
1810473550465728512 |