Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century
Abstract Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on...
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.13375 2023-12-03T10:18:55+01:00 Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century Butzin, Martin Pörtner, Hans‐Otto 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13375 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13375 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 22, issue 12, page 4162-4168 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change journal-article 2016 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375 2023-11-09T14:08:36Z Abstract Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature‐dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985–2004 and 2081–2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature‐ and oxygen‐dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Barents Sea Gadus morhua Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) Barents Sea Global Change Biology 22 12 4162 4168 |
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Wiley Online Library (via Crossref) |
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language |
English |
topic |
General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
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General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change Butzin, Martin Pörtner, Hans‐Otto Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
topic_facet |
General Environmental Science Ecology Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
description |
Abstract Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature‐dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985–2004 and 2081–2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature‐ and oxygen‐dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Butzin, Martin Pörtner, Hans‐Otto |
author_facet |
Butzin, Martin Pörtner, Hans‐Otto |
author_sort |
Butzin, Martin |
title |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_short |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_full |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
title_sort |
thermal growth potential of atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.13375 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.13375 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
atlantic cod Barents Sea Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Barents Sea Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 22, issue 12, page 4162-4168 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13375 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
4162 |
op_container_end_page |
4168 |
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1784266029829980160 |