Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate
Abstract According to the IPCC , the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome give...
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crwiley:10.1111/gcb.12157 2024-09-15T18:02:23+00:00 Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate Prost, Stefan Guralnick, Robert P. Waltari, Eric Fedorov, Vadim B. Kuzmina, Elena Smirnov, Nickolay van Kolfschoten, Thijs Hofreiter, Michael Vrieling, Klaas 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12157 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.12157 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.12157 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Global Change Biology volume 19, issue 6, page 1854-1864 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 journal-article 2013 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12157 2024-08-09T04:23:56Z Abstract According to the IPCC , the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so‐far moderate warming is already impacting A rctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial–interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the A rctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow‐skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling ( ENM ), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model‐testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow‐skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole A rctic food web and ecosystem. Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Wiley Online Library Global Change Biology 19 6 1854 1864 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract According to the IPCC , the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so‐far moderate warming is already impacting A rctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial–interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the A rctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow‐skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling ( ENM ), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model‐testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow‐skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole A rctic food web and ecosystem. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Prost, Stefan Guralnick, Robert P. Waltari, Eric Fedorov, Vadim B. Kuzmina, Elena Smirnov, Nickolay van Kolfschoten, Thijs Hofreiter, Michael Vrieling, Klaas |
spellingShingle |
Prost, Stefan Guralnick, Robert P. Waltari, Eric Fedorov, Vadim B. Kuzmina, Elena Smirnov, Nickolay van Kolfschoten, Thijs Hofreiter, Michael Vrieling, Klaas Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate |
author_facet |
Prost, Stefan Guralnick, Robert P. Waltari, Eric Fedorov, Vadim B. Kuzmina, Elena Smirnov, Nickolay van Kolfschoten, Thijs Hofreiter, Michael Vrieling, Klaas |
author_sort |
Prost, Stefan |
title |
Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate |
title_short |
Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate |
title_full |
Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate |
title_fullStr |
Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate |
title_sort |
losing ground: past history and future fate of arctic small mammals in a changing climate |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12157 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fgcb.12157 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.12157 |
genre |
Climate change |
genre_facet |
Climate change |
op_source |
Global Change Biology volume 19, issue 6, page 1854-1864 ISSN 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12157 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1854 |
op_container_end_page |
1864 |
_version_ |
1810439853161054208 |