Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts
Abstract The freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera has been suffering major population declines in Europe. This endangered species is a host specialist and exclusively requires salmonid species ( Salmo trutta and Salmo salar ) to complete its life cycle. In theory, obligatory biotic in...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13885 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fwb.13885 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/fwb.13885 |
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crwiley:10.1111/fwb.13885 2024-10-13T14:10:32+00:00 Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts da Silva, Janine P. Gonçalves, Duarte Vasconcelos Lopes‐Lima, Manuel Anastácio, Pedro M. Banha, Filipe Frimpong, Emmanuel Gama, Mafalda Miranda, Rafael Reis, Joaquim Filipe, Ana Filipa Sousa, Ronaldo Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13885 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fwb.13885 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/fwb.13885 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Freshwater Biology volume 67, issue 5, page 842-856 ISSN 0046-5070 1365-2427 journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13885 2024-09-17T04:48:18Z Abstract The freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera has been suffering major population declines in Europe. This endangered species is a host specialist and exclusively requires salmonid species ( Salmo trutta and Salmo salar ) to complete its life cycle. In theory, obligatory biotic interactions should deserve special conservation attention, because the loss or massive decline of fish hosts may elicit the extirpation of their affiliated species. While many threats disturbing M. margaritifera are similarly affecting salmonids, climate change is particularly alarming, with the potential to significantly change the fish‐mussel dynamics. To evaluate the importance of including the occurrence of fish hosts for predicting the distribution of M. margaritifera in Europe, three datasets were used to build species distribution models (SDMs) with a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach: (1) environmental variables (ENV); (2) probability of fish hosts occurrence (FH); and (3) environmental variables and probability of fish hosts occurrence (ENV + FH). We identified the environmental variables that better explain M. margaritifera distribution and modelled its current and future distribution under a suite of climate change scenarios. Furthermore, projections were used to evaluate the adequacy of current networks of European protected areas in covering the suitable habitats for M. margaritifera . Results showed that incorporating data about fish hosts into M. margaritifera SDMs avoided the overprediction of geographical projections and, to a minor extent, improved model performance (area under the curve: ENV = 0.851; FH = 0.848; ENV + FH = 0.867). The distribution range of M. margaritifera in Europe is expected to contract in all future timeframes and emission scenarios considered. Forecasts point to large contractions particularly in central and southern Europe and lowland regions. The European network of protected areas fails to protect 69% of the current and 66%–67% of the future predicted M. margaritifera ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Salmo salar Wiley Online Library Freshwater Biology 67 5 842 856 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera has been suffering major population declines in Europe. This endangered species is a host specialist and exclusively requires salmonid species ( Salmo trutta and Salmo salar ) to complete its life cycle. In theory, obligatory biotic interactions should deserve special conservation attention, because the loss or massive decline of fish hosts may elicit the extirpation of their affiliated species. While many threats disturbing M. margaritifera are similarly affecting salmonids, climate change is particularly alarming, with the potential to significantly change the fish‐mussel dynamics. To evaluate the importance of including the occurrence of fish hosts for predicting the distribution of M. margaritifera in Europe, three datasets were used to build species distribution models (SDMs) with a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach: (1) environmental variables (ENV); (2) probability of fish hosts occurrence (FH); and (3) environmental variables and probability of fish hosts occurrence (ENV + FH). We identified the environmental variables that better explain M. margaritifera distribution and modelled its current and future distribution under a suite of climate change scenarios. Furthermore, projections were used to evaluate the adequacy of current networks of European protected areas in covering the suitable habitats for M. margaritifera . Results showed that incorporating data about fish hosts into M. margaritifera SDMs avoided the overprediction of geographical projections and, to a minor extent, improved model performance (area under the curve: ENV = 0.851; FH = 0.848; ENV + FH = 0.867). The distribution range of M. margaritifera in Europe is expected to contract in all future timeframes and emission scenarios considered. Forecasts point to large contractions particularly in central and southern Europe and lowland regions. The European network of protected areas fails to protect 69% of the current and 66%–67% of the future predicted M. margaritifera ... |
author2 |
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
da Silva, Janine P. Gonçalves, Duarte Vasconcelos Lopes‐Lima, Manuel Anastácio, Pedro M. Banha, Filipe Frimpong, Emmanuel Gama, Mafalda Miranda, Rafael Reis, Joaquim Filipe, Ana Filipa Sousa, Ronaldo |
spellingShingle |
da Silva, Janine P. Gonçalves, Duarte Vasconcelos Lopes‐Lima, Manuel Anastácio, Pedro M. Banha, Filipe Frimpong, Emmanuel Gama, Mafalda Miranda, Rafael Reis, Joaquim Filipe, Ana Filipa Sousa, Ronaldo Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts |
author_facet |
da Silva, Janine P. Gonçalves, Duarte Vasconcelos Lopes‐Lima, Manuel Anastácio, Pedro M. Banha, Filipe Frimpong, Emmanuel Gama, Mafalda Miranda, Rafael Reis, Joaquim Filipe, Ana Filipa Sousa, Ronaldo |
author_sort |
da Silva, Janine P. |
title |
Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts |
title_short |
Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts |
title_full |
Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts |
title_fullStr |
Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts |
title_sort |
predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in europe: the need to account for fish hosts |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13885 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fwb.13885 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/fwb.13885 |
genre |
Salmo salar |
genre_facet |
Salmo salar |
op_source |
Freshwater Biology volume 67, issue 5, page 842-856 ISSN 0046-5070 1365-2427 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13885 |
container_title |
Freshwater Biology |
container_volume |
67 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
842 |
op_container_end_page |
856 |
_version_ |
1812817850669203456 |