Trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the Nordic and Barents Seas
Abstract Downscaling physical forcing from global climate models is both time consuming and labor demanding and can delay or limit the physical forcing available for regional marine ecosystem modelers. Earlier studies have shown that downscaled physics is necessary for capturing the dynamics of prim...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fog.12641 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fog.12641 |
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crwiley:10.1111/fog.12641 2024-06-02T08:00:08+00:00 Trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the Nordic and Barents Seas Nilsen, Ina Fransner, Filippa Olsen, Are Tjiputra, Jerry Hordoir, Robinson Hansen, Cecilie Norges Forskningsråd 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fog.12641 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fog.12641 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Fisheries Oceanography volume 32, issue 5, page 479-493 ISSN 1054-6006 1365-2419 journal-article 2023 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12641 2024-05-03T10:59:16Z Abstract Downscaling physical forcing from global climate models is both time consuming and labor demanding and can delay or limit the physical forcing available for regional marine ecosystem modelers. Earlier studies have shown that downscaled physics is necessary for capturing the dynamics of primary production and lower trophic levels; however, it is not clear how higher trophic levels respond to the coarse resolution physics of global models. Here, we apply the Nordic and Barents Seas Atlantis ecosystem model (NoBa) to study the consequences of using physical forcing from global climate models versus using that from regional models. The study is therefore (i) a comparison between a regional model and its driving global model to investigate the extent to which a global climate model can be used for regional ecosystem predictions and (ii) a study of the impact of future climate change in the Nordic and Barents Seas. We found that few higher trophic level species were affected by using forcing from a global versus a regional model, and there was a general agreement in future biomass trends and distribution patterns. However, the slight difference in temperature between the models dramatically impacted Northeast Arctic cod ( Gadus morhua ), which highlights how species projection uncertainty could arise from poor physical representation of the physical forcing, in addition to uncertainty in the ecosystem model parameterization. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic cod Arctic Climate change Gadus morhua Northeast Arctic cod Wiley Online Library Arctic Fisheries Oceanography 32 5 479 493 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Abstract Downscaling physical forcing from global climate models is both time consuming and labor demanding and can delay or limit the physical forcing available for regional marine ecosystem modelers. Earlier studies have shown that downscaled physics is necessary for capturing the dynamics of primary production and lower trophic levels; however, it is not clear how higher trophic levels respond to the coarse resolution physics of global models. Here, we apply the Nordic and Barents Seas Atlantis ecosystem model (NoBa) to study the consequences of using physical forcing from global climate models versus using that from regional models. The study is therefore (i) a comparison between a regional model and its driving global model to investigate the extent to which a global climate model can be used for regional ecosystem predictions and (ii) a study of the impact of future climate change in the Nordic and Barents Seas. We found that few higher trophic level species were affected by using forcing from a global versus a regional model, and there was a general agreement in future biomass trends and distribution patterns. However, the slight difference in temperature between the models dramatically impacted Northeast Arctic cod ( Gadus morhua ), which highlights how species projection uncertainty could arise from poor physical representation of the physical forcing, in addition to uncertainty in the ecosystem model parameterization. |
author2 |
Norges Forskningsråd |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nilsen, Ina Fransner, Filippa Olsen, Are Tjiputra, Jerry Hordoir, Robinson Hansen, Cecilie |
spellingShingle |
Nilsen, Ina Fransner, Filippa Olsen, Are Tjiputra, Jerry Hordoir, Robinson Hansen, Cecilie Trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the Nordic and Barents Seas |
author_facet |
Nilsen, Ina Fransner, Filippa Olsen, Are Tjiputra, Jerry Hordoir, Robinson Hansen, Cecilie |
author_sort |
Nilsen, Ina |
title |
Trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_short |
Trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_full |
Trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_fullStr |
Trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_sort |
trivial gain of downscaling in future projections of higher trophic levels in the nordic and barents seas |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fog.12641 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fog.12641 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic cod Arctic Climate change Gadus morhua Northeast Arctic cod |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Arctic Climate change Gadus morhua Northeast Arctic cod |
op_source |
Fisheries Oceanography volume 32, issue 5, page 479-493 ISSN 1054-6006 1365-2419 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12641 |
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Fisheries Oceanography |
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32 |
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5 |
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479 |
op_container_end_page |
493 |
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1800744139025809408 |