Adapting to climate‐driven distribution shifts using model‐based indices and age composition from multiple surveys in the walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus) stock assessment
Abstract The northern Bering Sea is transitioning from an Arctic to subarctic fish community as climate warms. Scientists and managers aim to understand how these changing conditions are influencing fish biomass and spatial distribution in this region, as both are used to inform stock assessments an...
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crwiley:10.1111/fog.12494 2024-05-19T07:36:38+00:00 Adapting to climate‐driven distribution shifts using model‐based indices and age composition from multiple surveys in the walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus) stock assessment O’Leary, Cecilia A. Thorson, James T. Ianelli, James N. Kotwicki, Stan North Pacific Research Board 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fog.12494 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fog.12494 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/fog.12494 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Fisheries Oceanography volume 29, issue 6, page 541-557 ISSN 1054-6006 1365-2419 Aquatic Science Oceanography journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12494 2024-04-22T07:31:20Z Abstract The northern Bering Sea is transitioning from an Arctic to subarctic fish community as climate warms. Scientists and managers aim to understand how these changing conditions are influencing fish biomass and spatial distribution in this region, as both are used to inform stock assessments and fisheries management advice. Here, we use a spatio‐temporal model for walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus ) to provide two inputs to its stock assessment model: (a) an alternative model‐based biomass index and (b) alternative model‐based age compositions. Both inputs were derived from multiple fishery‐independent data that span different regions of space and time. We developed an assessment model that utilizes both the standard and model‐based inputs from multiple surveys despite inconsistencies in spatial and temporal coverage, and we found that using these data provide an improved spatial and temporal scope of total pollock biomass. Age composition information indicated that pollock density is increasing and moving farther north, particularly for older pollock. We found that including an index of cold pool extent could be used to extrapolate pollock densities in the northern Bering Sea in unsampled years. Stock assessment parameter estimates were similar for standard and model‐based input. This study demonstrates that spatio‐temporal model‐based estimates of a biomass index and age composition can facilitate rapid changes in stock assessment structure in response to climate‐driven shifts in spatial distribution. We conclude that assimilating data from regions neighboring standard survey areas, such as the Chukchi Sea and western Bering Sea, would improve understanding and management efforts as fish distributions change under a warming climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Bering Sea Chukchi Chukchi Sea Subarctic Wiley Online Library Fisheries Oceanography 29 6 541 557 |
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language |
English |
topic |
Aquatic Science Oceanography |
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Aquatic Science Oceanography O’Leary, Cecilia A. Thorson, James T. Ianelli, James N. Kotwicki, Stan Adapting to climate‐driven distribution shifts using model‐based indices and age composition from multiple surveys in the walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus) stock assessment |
topic_facet |
Aquatic Science Oceanography |
description |
Abstract The northern Bering Sea is transitioning from an Arctic to subarctic fish community as climate warms. Scientists and managers aim to understand how these changing conditions are influencing fish biomass and spatial distribution in this region, as both are used to inform stock assessments and fisheries management advice. Here, we use a spatio‐temporal model for walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus ) to provide two inputs to its stock assessment model: (a) an alternative model‐based biomass index and (b) alternative model‐based age compositions. Both inputs were derived from multiple fishery‐independent data that span different regions of space and time. We developed an assessment model that utilizes both the standard and model‐based inputs from multiple surveys despite inconsistencies in spatial and temporal coverage, and we found that using these data provide an improved spatial and temporal scope of total pollock biomass. Age composition information indicated that pollock density is increasing and moving farther north, particularly for older pollock. We found that including an index of cold pool extent could be used to extrapolate pollock densities in the northern Bering Sea in unsampled years. Stock assessment parameter estimates were similar for standard and model‐based input. This study demonstrates that spatio‐temporal model‐based estimates of a biomass index and age composition can facilitate rapid changes in stock assessment structure in response to climate‐driven shifts in spatial distribution. We conclude that assimilating data from regions neighboring standard survey areas, such as the Chukchi Sea and western Bering Sea, would improve understanding and management efforts as fish distributions change under a warming climate. |
author2 |
North Pacific Research Board |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
O’Leary, Cecilia A. Thorson, James T. Ianelli, James N. Kotwicki, Stan |
author_facet |
O’Leary, Cecilia A. Thorson, James T. Ianelli, James N. Kotwicki, Stan |
author_sort |
O’Leary, Cecilia A. |
title |
Adapting to climate‐driven distribution shifts using model‐based indices and age composition from multiple surveys in the walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus) stock assessment |
title_short |
Adapting to climate‐driven distribution shifts using model‐based indices and age composition from multiple surveys in the walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus) stock assessment |
title_full |
Adapting to climate‐driven distribution shifts using model‐based indices and age composition from multiple surveys in the walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus) stock assessment |
title_fullStr |
Adapting to climate‐driven distribution shifts using model‐based indices and age composition from multiple surveys in the walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus) stock assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Adapting to climate‐driven distribution shifts using model‐based indices and age composition from multiple surveys in the walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus) stock assessment |
title_sort |
adapting to climate‐driven distribution shifts using model‐based indices and age composition from multiple surveys in the walleye pollock ( gadus chalcogrammus) stock assessment |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fog.12494 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fog.12494 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/fog.12494 |
genre |
Arctic Bering Sea Chukchi Chukchi Sea Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Bering Sea Chukchi Chukchi Sea Subarctic |
op_source |
Fisheries Oceanography volume 29, issue 6, page 541-557 ISSN 1054-6006 1365-2419 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12494 |
container_title |
Fisheries Oceanography |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
541 |
op_container_end_page |
557 |
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1799475764269154304 |