Improved estimation and forecasts of stock maturities using generalised linear mixed models with auto‐correlated random effects
Abstract Estimation of proportion mature‐at‐age is an important component of the estimation of stock productivity. Current methods estimate maturity‐at‐age in each year or cohort independently. However, cohorts that are alive in the population at the same time are expected to experience similar cond...
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crwiley:10.1111/fme.12080 2024-06-02T08:03:11+00:00 Improved estimation and forecasts of stock maturities using generalised linear mixed models with auto‐correlated random effects Cadigan, N. G. Morgan, M. J. Brattey, J. Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fme.12080 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Ffme.12080 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fme.12080 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Fisheries Management and Ecology volume 21, issue 5, page 343-356 ISSN 0969-997X 1365-2400 journal-article 2014 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/fme.12080 2024-05-03T11:10:59Z Abstract Estimation of proportion mature‐at‐age is an important component of the estimation of stock productivity. Current methods estimate maturity‐at‐age in each year or cohort independently. However, cohorts that are alive in the population at the same time are expected to experience similar conditions and therefore have similar maturity trajectories. Methods to take advantage of this information using binomial time series models with over‐dispersion are presented to improve the estimation of maturity‐at‐age, with applications to example populations of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua Linnaeus, and American plaice, Hippoglossoides platessoides (Fabricius). An auto‐correlated beta‐binomial model fit the data well compared to other models investigated and improved forecasts of maturities for both populations. Use of an auto‐correlated beta‐binomial model should lead to improvements in projections of stock status and, hence, improvements in fisheries management advice. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua Wiley Online Library Fisheries Management and Ecology 21 5 343 356 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Estimation of proportion mature‐at‐age is an important component of the estimation of stock productivity. Current methods estimate maturity‐at‐age in each year or cohort independently. However, cohorts that are alive in the population at the same time are expected to experience similar conditions and therefore have similar maturity trajectories. Methods to take advantage of this information using binomial time series models with over‐dispersion are presented to improve the estimation of maturity‐at‐age, with applications to example populations of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua Linnaeus, and American plaice, Hippoglossoides platessoides (Fabricius). An auto‐correlated beta‐binomial model fit the data well compared to other models investigated and improved forecasts of maturities for both populations. Use of an auto‐correlated beta‐binomial model should lead to improvements in projections of stock status and, hence, improvements in fisheries management advice. |
author2 |
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cadigan, N. G. Morgan, M. J. Brattey, J. |
spellingShingle |
Cadigan, N. G. Morgan, M. J. Brattey, J. Improved estimation and forecasts of stock maturities using generalised linear mixed models with auto‐correlated random effects |
author_facet |
Cadigan, N. G. Morgan, M. J. Brattey, J. |
author_sort |
Cadigan, N. G. |
title |
Improved estimation and forecasts of stock maturities using generalised linear mixed models with auto‐correlated random effects |
title_short |
Improved estimation and forecasts of stock maturities using generalised linear mixed models with auto‐correlated random effects |
title_full |
Improved estimation and forecasts of stock maturities using generalised linear mixed models with auto‐correlated random effects |
title_fullStr |
Improved estimation and forecasts of stock maturities using generalised linear mixed models with auto‐correlated random effects |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improved estimation and forecasts of stock maturities using generalised linear mixed models with auto‐correlated random effects |
title_sort |
improved estimation and forecasts of stock maturities using generalised linear mixed models with auto‐correlated random effects |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fme.12080 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Ffme.12080 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fme.12080 |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Fisheries Management and Ecology volume 21, issue 5, page 343-356 ISSN 0969-997X 1365-2400 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/fme.12080 |
container_title |
Fisheries Management and Ecology |
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21 |
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5 |
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343 |
op_container_end_page |
356 |
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1800747657921036288 |