Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales
Abstract Many baleen whales were commercially harvested during the 20th century almost to extinction. Reliable assessments of how this mass depletion impacted whale populations, and projections of their recovery, are crucial but there are uncertainties regarding the status of Southern Hemisphere wha...
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crwiley:10.1111/faf.12241 2024-06-23T07:46:54+00:00 Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales Tulloch, Vivitskaia J D Plagányi, Éva E Matear, Richard Brown, Christopher J Richardson, Anthony J Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/faf.12241 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Ffaf.12241 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/faf.12241 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Fish and Fisheries volume 19, issue 1, page 117-137 ISSN 1467-2960 1467-2979 journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12241 2024-06-06T04:20:13Z Abstract Many baleen whales were commercially harvested during the 20th century almost to extinction. Reliable assessments of how this mass depletion impacted whale populations, and projections of their recovery, are crucial but there are uncertainties regarding the status of Southern Hemisphere whale populations. We developed a Southern Hemisphere spatial “Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments” (MICE) for phytoplankton, krill ( Euphausia superba) and five baleen whale species, to estimate whale population trajectories from 1890 to present. To forward project to 2100, we couple the predator–prey model to a global climate model. We used the most up to date catch records, fitted to survey data and accounted for key uncertainties. We predict Antarctic blue ( Balaenoptera musculus intermedia) , fin ( Balaenoptera physalus ) and southern right ( Eubalaena australis ) whales will be at less than half their pre‐exploitation numbers ( K ) even given 100 years of future protection from whaling, because of slow growth rates. Some species have benefited greatly from cessation of harvesting, particularly humpbacks ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), currently at 32% of K , with full recovery predicted by 2050. We highlight spatial differences in the recovery of whale species between oceanic areas, with current estimates of Atlantic/Indian area blue (1,890, <1% of K ) and fin (16,950, <4% of K ) whales suggesting slower recovery from harvesting, whilst Pacific southern right numbers are <7% of K (2,680). Antarctic minke ( Balaenoptera bonaerensis) population trajectories track future expected increases in primary productivity. Population estimates and plausible future predicted trajectories for Southern Hemisphere baleen whales are key requirements for management and conservation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Balaenoptera bonaerensis Balaenoptera musculus Balaenoptera physalus baleen whale baleen whales Euphausia superba Megaptera novaeangliae Wiley Online Library Antarctic Indian Pacific Fish and Fisheries 19 1 117 137 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Many baleen whales were commercially harvested during the 20th century almost to extinction. Reliable assessments of how this mass depletion impacted whale populations, and projections of their recovery, are crucial but there are uncertainties regarding the status of Southern Hemisphere whale populations. We developed a Southern Hemisphere spatial “Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments” (MICE) for phytoplankton, krill ( Euphausia superba) and five baleen whale species, to estimate whale population trajectories from 1890 to present. To forward project to 2100, we couple the predator–prey model to a global climate model. We used the most up to date catch records, fitted to survey data and accounted for key uncertainties. We predict Antarctic blue ( Balaenoptera musculus intermedia) , fin ( Balaenoptera physalus ) and southern right ( Eubalaena australis ) whales will be at less than half their pre‐exploitation numbers ( K ) even given 100 years of future protection from whaling, because of slow growth rates. Some species have benefited greatly from cessation of harvesting, particularly humpbacks ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), currently at 32% of K , with full recovery predicted by 2050. We highlight spatial differences in the recovery of whale species between oceanic areas, with current estimates of Atlantic/Indian area blue (1,890, <1% of K ) and fin (16,950, <4% of K ) whales suggesting slower recovery from harvesting, whilst Pacific southern right numbers are <7% of K (2,680). Antarctic minke ( Balaenoptera bonaerensis) population trajectories track future expected increases in primary productivity. Population estimates and plausible future predicted trajectories for Southern Hemisphere baleen whales are key requirements for management and conservation. |
author2 |
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tulloch, Vivitskaia J D Plagányi, Éva E Matear, Richard Brown, Christopher J Richardson, Anthony J |
spellingShingle |
Tulloch, Vivitskaia J D Plagányi, Éva E Matear, Richard Brown, Christopher J Richardson, Anthony J Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales |
author_facet |
Tulloch, Vivitskaia J D Plagányi, Éva E Matear, Richard Brown, Christopher J Richardson, Anthony J |
author_sort |
Tulloch, Vivitskaia J D |
title |
Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales |
title_short |
Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales |
title_full |
Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales |
title_fullStr |
Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales |
title_sort |
ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on southern hemisphere baleen whales |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/faf.12241 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Ffaf.12241 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/faf.12241 |
geographic |
Antarctic Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Indian Pacific |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Balaenoptera bonaerensis Balaenoptera musculus Balaenoptera physalus baleen whale baleen whales Euphausia superba Megaptera novaeangliae |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Balaenoptera bonaerensis Balaenoptera musculus Balaenoptera physalus baleen whale baleen whales Euphausia superba Megaptera novaeangliae |
op_source |
Fish and Fisheries volume 19, issue 1, page 117-137 ISSN 1467-2960 1467-2979 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12241 |
container_title |
Fish and Fisheries |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
117 |
op_container_end_page |
137 |
_version_ |
1802649096187543552 |