Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations
Abstract In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations ar...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Feva.12613 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eva.12613 |
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crwiley:10.1111/eva.12613 2024-09-15T17:48:45+00:00 Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. Natural Environment Research Council Agence Nationale de la Recherche 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Feva.12613 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eva.12613 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Evolutionary Applications volume 11, issue 6, page 978-994 ISSN 1752-4571 1752-4571 journal-article 2018 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 2024-08-22T04:16:24Z Abstract In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an individual‐based modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari . Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N. rossii , which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of ~1,500 km, the genetic isolation of C. gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem‐level management. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Notothenia rossii Scotia Sea Stepping Stones Wiley Online Library Evolutionary Applications 11 6 978 994 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an individual‐based modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari . Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N. rossii , which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of ~1,500 km, the genetic isolation of C. gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem‐level management. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council Agence Nationale de la Recherche |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. |
spellingShingle |
Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
author_facet |
Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. |
author_sort |
Young, Emma F. |
title |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_short |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_full |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_fullStr |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_sort |
stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Feva.12613 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eva.12613 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Notothenia rossii Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Notothenia rossii Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
op_source |
Evolutionary Applications volume 11, issue 6, page 978-994 ISSN 1752-4571 1752-4571 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 |
container_title |
Evolutionary Applications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
978 |
op_container_end_page |
994 |
_version_ |
1810290256915726336 |