Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators
Abstract Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate‐driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida )...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.13866 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13866 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ele.13866 |
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crwiley:10.1111/ele.13866 2024-09-15T17:52:27+00:00 Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators Florko, Katie R. N. Tai, Travis C. Cheung, William W. L. Ferguson, Steven H. Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David J. Auger‐Méthé, Marie Bruyn, Nico de Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.13866 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13866 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ele.13866 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Ecology Letters volume 24, issue 12, page 2563-2575 ISSN 1461-023X 1461-0248 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13866 2024-08-13T04:13:05Z Abstract Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate‐driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida ) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high‐ and low‐greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low‐emission scenario, but under the high‐emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well‐distributed, ice‐adapted and energy‐rich Arctic cod ( Boreogadus saida ) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate‐associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy‐rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic cod Boreogadus saida Climate change Hudson Bay Pusa hispida ringed seal Sea ice Wiley Online Library Ecology Letters 24 12 2563 2575 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate‐driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida ) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high‐ and low‐greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low‐emission scenario, but under the high‐emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well‐distributed, ice‐adapted and energy‐rich Arctic cod ( Boreogadus saida ) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate‐associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy‐rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators. |
author2 |
Bruyn, Nico de Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Florko, Katie R. N. Tai, Travis C. Cheung, William W. L. Ferguson, Steven H. Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David J. Auger‐Méthé, Marie |
spellingShingle |
Florko, Katie R. N. Tai, Travis C. Cheung, William W. L. Ferguson, Steven H. Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David J. Auger‐Méthé, Marie Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
author_facet |
Florko, Katie R. N. Tai, Travis C. Cheung, William W. L. Ferguson, Steven H. Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David J. Auger‐Méthé, Marie |
author_sort |
Florko, Katie R. N. |
title |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_short |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_full |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_fullStr |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_sort |
predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of arctic marine predators |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.13866 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13866 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ele.13866 |
genre |
Arctic cod Boreogadus saida Climate change Hudson Bay Pusa hispida ringed seal Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Boreogadus saida Climate change Hudson Bay Pusa hispida ringed seal Sea ice |
op_source |
Ecology Letters volume 24, issue 12, page 2563-2575 ISSN 1461-023X 1461-0248 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13866 |
container_title |
Ecology Letters |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
2563 |
op_container_end_page |
2575 |
_version_ |
1810294483697270784 |