Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data
While large carnivores are recovering in Europe, assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities. Because they are highly mobile, elusive and live at very low density, modeling their distributions presents several challenges due to 1) their imperfect de...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02874 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fecog.02874 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ecog.02874 |
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crwiley:10.1111/ecog.02874 2024-10-13T14:06:34+00:00 Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data Louvrier, Julie Duchamp, Christophe Lauret, Valentin Marboutin, Eric Cubaynes, Sarah Choquet, Rémi Miquel, Christian Gimenez, Olivier GDR Ecologie Statistique, Univ. of Montpellier and ONCFS for grants she received to conduct her work 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02874 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fecog.02874 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ecog.02874 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Ecography volume 41, issue 4, page 647-660 ISSN 0906-7590 1600-0587 journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02874 2024-09-27T04:17:27Z While large carnivores are recovering in Europe, assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities. Because they are highly mobile, elusive and live at very low density, modeling their distributions presents several challenges due to 1) their imperfect detectability, 2) their dynamic ranges over time and 3) their monitoring at large scales consisting mainly of opportunistic data without a formal measure of the sampling effort. Here, we focused on wolves Canis lupus that have been recolonizing France since the early 1990s. We evaluated the sampling effort a posteriori as the number of observers present per year in a cell based on their location and professional activities. We then assessed wolf range dynamics from 1994 to 2016, while accounting for species imperfect detection and time‐ and space‐varying sampling effort using dynamic site‐occupancy models. Ignoring the effect of sampling effort on species detectability led to underestimating the number of occupied sites by more than 50% on average. Colonization appeared to be negatively influenced by the proportion of a site with an altitude higher than 2500 m and positively influenced by the number of observed occupied sites at short and long‐distances, forest cover, farmland cover and mean altitude. The expansion rate, defined as the number of occupied sites in a given year divided by the number of occupied sites in the previous year, decreased over the first years of the study, then remained stable from 2000 to 2016. Our work shows that opportunistic data can be analyzed with species distribution models that control for imperfect detection, pending a quantification of sampling effort. Our approach has the potential for being used by decision‐makers to target sites where large carnivores are likely to occur and mitigate conflicts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus Wiley Online Library Ecography 41 4 647 660 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
While large carnivores are recovering in Europe, assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities. Because they are highly mobile, elusive and live at very low density, modeling their distributions presents several challenges due to 1) their imperfect detectability, 2) their dynamic ranges over time and 3) their monitoring at large scales consisting mainly of opportunistic data without a formal measure of the sampling effort. Here, we focused on wolves Canis lupus that have been recolonizing France since the early 1990s. We evaluated the sampling effort a posteriori as the number of observers present per year in a cell based on their location and professional activities. We then assessed wolf range dynamics from 1994 to 2016, while accounting for species imperfect detection and time‐ and space‐varying sampling effort using dynamic site‐occupancy models. Ignoring the effect of sampling effort on species detectability led to underestimating the number of occupied sites by more than 50% on average. Colonization appeared to be negatively influenced by the proportion of a site with an altitude higher than 2500 m and positively influenced by the number of observed occupied sites at short and long‐distances, forest cover, farmland cover and mean altitude. The expansion rate, defined as the number of occupied sites in a given year divided by the number of occupied sites in the previous year, decreased over the first years of the study, then remained stable from 2000 to 2016. Our work shows that opportunistic data can be analyzed with species distribution models that control for imperfect detection, pending a quantification of sampling effort. Our approach has the potential for being used by decision‐makers to target sites where large carnivores are likely to occur and mitigate conflicts. |
author2 |
GDR Ecologie Statistique, Univ. of Montpellier and ONCFS for grants she received to conduct her work |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Louvrier, Julie Duchamp, Christophe Lauret, Valentin Marboutin, Eric Cubaynes, Sarah Choquet, Rémi Miquel, Christian Gimenez, Olivier |
spellingShingle |
Louvrier, Julie Duchamp, Christophe Lauret, Valentin Marboutin, Eric Cubaynes, Sarah Choquet, Rémi Miquel, Christian Gimenez, Olivier Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data |
author_facet |
Louvrier, Julie Duchamp, Christophe Lauret, Valentin Marboutin, Eric Cubaynes, Sarah Choquet, Rémi Miquel, Christian Gimenez, Olivier |
author_sort |
Louvrier, Julie |
title |
Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data |
title_short |
Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data |
title_full |
Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data |
title_fullStr |
Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data |
title_sort |
mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in france using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02874 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fecog.02874 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ecog.02874 |
genre |
Canis lupus |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus |
op_source |
Ecography volume 41, issue 4, page 647-660 ISSN 0906-7590 1600-0587 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02874 |
container_title |
Ecography |
container_volume |
41 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
647 |
op_container_end_page |
660 |
_version_ |
1812812765805412352 |