Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean
Abstract Aim Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. We examine relative changes among species, i...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.13447 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.13447 |
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crwiley:10.1111/ddi.13447 2024-10-13T14:03:03+00:00 Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean Reisinger, Ryan R. Corney, Stuart Raymond, Ben Lombard, Amanda T. Bester, Marthán N. Crawford, Robert J. M. Davies, Delia de Bruyn, P. J. Nico Dilley, Ben J. Kirkman, Stephen P. Makhado, Azwianewi B. Ryan, Peter G. Schoombie, Stefan Stevens, Kim L. Tosh, Cheryl A. Wege, Mia Whitehead, T. Otto Sumner, Michael D. Wotherspoon, Simon Friedlaender, Ari S. Cotté, Cedric Hindell, Mark A. Ropert‐Coudert, Yan Pistorius, Pierre A. Leroy, Boris Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research National Research Foundation 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.13447 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.13447 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Diversity and Distributions volume 28, issue 1, page 142-159 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 2024-09-17T04:46:04Z Abstract Aim Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. We examine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community‐level changes and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservation and management. Location Southern Indian Ocean. Methods We used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean, totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around the Prince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selection as a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC‐class climate models. To project the potential distribution of the predators in 2071–2100, we used climate model outputs assuming two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results Analogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast and southwest. Species’ potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overall shifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, current species co‐occurrence patterns and future projections were statistically similar. Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of national waters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increase in the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area. Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands and increased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerly habitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean management authorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts. Main conclusions Overall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southern Indian ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Prince Edward Islands Southern Ocean Wiley Online Library Antarctic Southern Ocean Indian Diversity and Distributions 28 1 142 159 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Aim Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. We examine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community‐level changes and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservation and management. Location Southern Indian Ocean. Methods We used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean, totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around the Prince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selection as a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC‐class climate models. To project the potential distribution of the predators in 2071–2100, we used climate model outputs assuming two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results Analogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast and southwest. Species’ potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overall shifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, current species co‐occurrence patterns and future projections were statistically similar. Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of national waters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increase in the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area. Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands and increased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerly habitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean management authorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts. Main conclusions Overall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southern Indian ... |
author2 |
Leroy, Boris Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research National Research Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reisinger, Ryan R. Corney, Stuart Raymond, Ben Lombard, Amanda T. Bester, Marthán N. Crawford, Robert J. M. Davies, Delia de Bruyn, P. J. Nico Dilley, Ben J. Kirkman, Stephen P. Makhado, Azwianewi B. Ryan, Peter G. Schoombie, Stefan Stevens, Kim L. Tosh, Cheryl A. Wege, Mia Whitehead, T. Otto Sumner, Michael D. Wotherspoon, Simon Friedlaender, Ari S. Cotté, Cedric Hindell, Mark A. Ropert‐Coudert, Yan Pistorius, Pierre A. |
spellingShingle |
Reisinger, Ryan R. Corney, Stuart Raymond, Ben Lombard, Amanda T. Bester, Marthán N. Crawford, Robert J. M. Davies, Delia de Bruyn, P. J. Nico Dilley, Ben J. Kirkman, Stephen P. Makhado, Azwianewi B. Ryan, Peter G. Schoombie, Stefan Stevens, Kim L. Tosh, Cheryl A. Wege, Mia Whitehead, T. Otto Sumner, Michael D. Wotherspoon, Simon Friedlaender, Ari S. Cotté, Cedric Hindell, Mark A. Ropert‐Coudert, Yan Pistorius, Pierre A. Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
author_facet |
Reisinger, Ryan R. Corney, Stuart Raymond, Ben Lombard, Amanda T. Bester, Marthán N. Crawford, Robert J. M. Davies, Delia de Bruyn, P. J. Nico Dilley, Ben J. Kirkman, Stephen P. Makhado, Azwianewi B. Ryan, Peter G. Schoombie, Stefan Stevens, Kim L. Tosh, Cheryl A. Wege, Mia Whitehead, T. Otto Sumner, Michael D. Wotherspoon, Simon Friedlaender, Ari S. Cotté, Cedric Hindell, Mark A. Ropert‐Coudert, Yan Pistorius, Pierre A. |
author_sort |
Reisinger, Ryan R. |
title |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_short |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_full |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_sort |
habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern indian ocean |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.13447 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.13447 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Indian |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Indian |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Prince Edward Islands Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Prince Edward Islands Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Diversity and Distributions volume 28, issue 1, page 142-159 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
142 |
op_container_end_page |
159 |
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1812819484167110656 |