Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios
Abstract Aims To identify potential hull fouling marine invasive species that could survive in East Antarctica presently and in the future. Location Australia's Antarctic continental stations: Davis, Mawson and Casey, East Antarctica; and subantarctic islands: Macquarie Island and Heard and McD...
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crwiley:10.1111/ddi.13246 2024-06-23T07:45:44+00:00 Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios Holland, Oakes Shaw, Justine Stark, Jonathan S. Wilson, Kerrie A. Briski, Elizabeta 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13246 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.13246 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.13246 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Diversity and Distributions volume 27, issue 6, page 973-988 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13246 2024-05-31T08:08:48Z Abstract Aims To identify potential hull fouling marine invasive species that could survive in East Antarctica presently and in the future. Location Australia's Antarctic continental stations: Davis, Mawson and Casey, East Antarctica; and subantarctic islands: Macquarie Island and Heard and McDonald Islands. Methods Our study uses a novel machineālearning algorithm to predict which currently known hull fouling MIS could survive in shallow benthic ecosystems adjacent to Australian Antarctic research stations and subantarctic islands, where ship traffic is present. We used gradient boosted machine learning (XGBoost) with four important environmental variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and pH) to develop models of suitable environments for each potentially invasive species. We then used these models to determine if any of Australia's three Antarctic research stations and two subantarctic islands could be environmentally suitable for MIS now and under two future climate scenarios. Results Most of the species were predicted to be unable to survive at any location between now and the end of this century; however, four species were identified as potential current threats and five as threats under future climate change. Asterias amurensis was identified as a potential threat to all locations. Main conclusions This study suggests that the risks are very low, but plausible, that known hull fouling species could survive in the shallow benthic habitats near Australia's East Antarctica locations and suggest a precautionary approach is needed by way of surveillance and monitoring in this region, particularly if propagule pressure increases. While some species could survive as adults in the region, their ability to reach these locations and undergo successful reproduction is considered unlikely based on current knowledge. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Macquarie Island McDonald Islands Wiley Online Library Antarctic East Antarctica Heard ENVELOPE(73.510,73.510,-53.117,-53.117) McDonald Islands ENVELOPE(72.600,72.600,-53.033,-53.033) Diversity and Distributions 27 6 973 988 |
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English |
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Abstract Aims To identify potential hull fouling marine invasive species that could survive in East Antarctica presently and in the future. Location Australia's Antarctic continental stations: Davis, Mawson and Casey, East Antarctica; and subantarctic islands: Macquarie Island and Heard and McDonald Islands. Methods Our study uses a novel machineālearning algorithm to predict which currently known hull fouling MIS could survive in shallow benthic ecosystems adjacent to Australian Antarctic research stations and subantarctic islands, where ship traffic is present. We used gradient boosted machine learning (XGBoost) with four important environmental variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and pH) to develop models of suitable environments for each potentially invasive species. We then used these models to determine if any of Australia's three Antarctic research stations and two subantarctic islands could be environmentally suitable for MIS now and under two future climate scenarios. Results Most of the species were predicted to be unable to survive at any location between now and the end of this century; however, four species were identified as potential current threats and five as threats under future climate change. Asterias amurensis was identified as a potential threat to all locations. Main conclusions This study suggests that the risks are very low, but plausible, that known hull fouling species could survive in the shallow benthic habitats near Australia's East Antarctica locations and suggest a precautionary approach is needed by way of surveillance and monitoring in this region, particularly if propagule pressure increases. While some species could survive as adults in the region, their ability to reach these locations and undergo successful reproduction is considered unlikely based on current knowledge. |
author2 |
Briski, Elizabeta |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Holland, Oakes Shaw, Justine Stark, Jonathan S. Wilson, Kerrie A. |
spellingShingle |
Holland, Oakes Shaw, Justine Stark, Jonathan S. Wilson, Kerrie A. Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios |
author_facet |
Holland, Oakes Shaw, Justine Stark, Jonathan S. Wilson, Kerrie A. |
author_sort |
Holland, Oakes |
title |
Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios |
title_short |
Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios |
title_full |
Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios |
title_sort |
hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to east antarctica in climate change scenarios |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13246 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.13246 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.13246 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(73.510,73.510,-53.117,-53.117) ENVELOPE(72.600,72.600,-53.033,-53.033) |
geographic |
Antarctic East Antarctica Heard McDonald Islands |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic East Antarctica Heard McDonald Islands |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Macquarie Island McDonald Islands |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Macquarie Island McDonald Islands |
op_source |
Diversity and Distributions volume 27, issue 6, page 973-988 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13246 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
6 |
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973 |
op_container_end_page |
988 |
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1802642143956697088 |